FAREWELL TO ARMS CONTROL? The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the 1992 Open Skies Treaty is either the beginning of the end of arms control regimes that have helped maintain world peace or a bold move that may usher in a new age of multilateral agreements that don’t disadvantage the United States while allowing Russia to cheat with impunity. The debate splits almost entirely along partisan lines.
IT’S UP TO RUSSIA: In announcing the decision to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, which allows 34 signatories to fly unarmed observation aircraft over each other’s countries, the U.S. accused Russia of “flagrantly and continuously violating” the treaty for years.
In a statement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the official notification of withdrawal means that six months from now, the U.S. will no longer be a party to the agreement unless Russia changes its ways, noting that the U.S. may “reconsider our withdrawal should Russia return to full compliance with the treaty.”
“Make no mistake: Russia alone bears responsibility for these developments, and for the continued erosion of the arms control architecture,” Pompeo said. “We remain committed to effective arms control that advances U.S., Ally, and partner security, that is verifiable and enforceable, and that includes partners that comply responsibly with their obligations.”
YEARS OF VIOLATIONS: At the Pentagon, a similar statement said it has become “abundantly clear” that it is no longer in the U.S.’s best interest to abide by the treaty while Russia flouts it:
“The Open Skies Treaty was designed decades ago to increase transparency, cooperation, and mutual understanding. Instead, Russia has increasingly used the Treaty to support propaganda narratives in an attempt to justify Russian aggression against its neighbors and may use it for military targeting against the United States and our Allies.”
“Since 2017, the United States has declared Russia in violation of the treaty multiple times,” said spokesman Jonathan Hoffman, “including limiting flight distances over Kaliningrad to 500 kilometers, which reduces transparency in a heavily militarized area, denying flights within 10 kilometers of the Georgia/Russian border, and denying a flight over a major military exercise this past year, which completely prevented imaging of military exercise activity that was scheduled and approved previously.”
‘FULLY JUSTIFIED’: “Russia is undermining important tenets of the treaty, including security, openness, and transparency — and there must be consequences for noncompliance with the treaty,” said Peter Brookes, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, who called the move “fully justified” due to long-standing Russian violations.
‘A SLAP IN THE FACE’: Democrats in Congress immediately denounced the move and complained it violated a provision of the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, which requires a 120-day notification of the intent to withdraw.
“The Administration’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Open Skies Treaty is a slap in the face to our allies in Europe, leaves our deployed forces in the region at risk, and is in blatant violation of the law,” said Reps. Adam Smith, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Jim Cooper, chairman of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, in a joint statement. “This decision weakens our national security interests, isolates the United States since the Treaty will continue without us, and abandons a useful tool to hold Russia accountable.”
TRUMP — RUSSIA’S GOING TO WANT TO MAKE A DEAL: Speaking to reporters yesterday, President Trump expressed confidence that based on his “good relationship” with President Vladimir Putin, Russia will want to make a new agreement.
“Russia didn’t adhere to the treaty, so until they adhere, we will pull out. But there’s a very good chance we’ll make a new agreement or do something to put that agreement back together,” Trump said. “So, I think what’s going to happen is we’re going to pull out, and they’re going to come back and want to make a deal.”
FRESH START ON NEW START: The president seemed to be referring not just to the Open Skies Treaty, but also the New START agreement, which limits deployed nuclear weapons by Russia and the U.S. and which expires next year. “We’re probably going to make a deal with Russia on arms treaty,” Trump said. “And China will be maybe included in that. We’ll see what happens.”
At a State Department briefing, Marshall Billingslea, the U.S. special envoy for arms control, said, “But we do believe there is a path ahead. We are very eager to begin discussions with the Russians and with the Chinese.”
Billingslea said he had “a strong conversation” with his Russian counterpart Sergey Ryabkov but said extending or expanding New START is “really … up to the Russians.”
“We go forward into these new nuclear negotiations with our eyes wide open and with the expectation that we’re going to have to have very, very tough verification measures for both Russia and China, especially when it comes to something like the sanctity, the integrity of a limitation on our nuclear deterrent,” he said.
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Sivak and Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not be published Monday, May 25, in observance of Memorial Day.
RESPONDING TO HONG KONG: China’s move to institute new security laws that will tighten its control of Hong Kong has set off alarm bells on Capitol Hill.
“The Chinese Communist Party is still trying to kill Hong Kong’s autonomy,” said Republican Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska. “Beijing’s current proposal will effectively destroy the rule of law in Hong Kong and will give Chairman Xi’s thugs legal cover to treat freedom-loving protesters as terrorists.”
Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley announced he plans to introduce a resolution condemning China’s national security law in Hong Kong that would ban subversion, sedition, and succession. “The USA cannot let this stand,” he tweeted.
Maryland Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey have teamed up on a bill that would impose mandatory sanctions on entities that violate China’s obligations to Hong Kong.
“This bipartisan legislation will impose serious penalties on those working to strip Hong Kong of its autonomy,” said Van Hollen. “I urge the Senate to take up this bill immediately – it’s clear we have no time to waste.”
“In many ways, Hong Kong is the canary in the coal mine for Asia,” said Toomey. “The communist regime in Beijing would like nothing more than to extinguish the autonomy of Hong Kong and the rights of its people.”
SHOOTING ‘TERRORISM-RELATED’: A shooting at the Naval Air Station in Corpus Christi, Texas, was described as “terrorism-related” by the FBI during a short news conference at which few details were released, and no questions taken.
The Navy said the gunman arrived at the base at approximately 6:15 a.m. yesterday and that one sailor ”sustained minor injuries” in the attack before the shooter was killed.
“We are not ruling out any possible motives and continue to investigate all leads. When we are able to release additional information, we will do so,” said the FBI in a tweet. “The FBI would like to recognize the bravery and heroism of the NAS personnel who took quick action to prevent the shooter from entering the base and engaged the shooter, potentially saving many innocent lives.”
The suspect was identified as Adam Alsahli of Corpus Christi, according to the Associated Press, which identified the wounded sailor as a member of base security. “She was able to roll over and hit the switch that raised a barrier, preventing the man from getting onto the base,” the AP reported.
SENATE CONFIRMS RATCLIFFE: The Senate voted 49-44 along strictly party lines to confirm Rep. John Ratcliffe as director of national intelligence, the nation’s top spymaster.
The Texas Republican will replace acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell.
“John Ratcliffe will lead the intelligence community in countering threats from great powers, rogue nations, and terrorists — and ensuring that work is untainted by political bias,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said ahead of the vote.
7 CARRIERS AT SEA: The Navy currently has seven of its 11 aircraft carriers at sea. The USS Nimitz and USS Abraham Lincoln are operating in the Pacific Ocean. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Ronald Reagan are in the Philippine Sea. The USS Harry S. Truman and USS Gerald R. Ford are in the Atlantic. And the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is in the North Arabian Sea.
The Roosevelt is doing a shakedown cruise as it recovers from the coronavirus infection that sidelined it for two months in Guam, said Hoffman at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing. “They’re recertifying the flight deck, recertifying the crew … something that happens after a ship’s been in port for an extended period of time.”
When that’s done, “the ship will return to Guam, pick up the remaining crew members who are still quarantined and who are still recovering from COVID,” Hoffman said. “They’ll get back on the ship, and then, the ship will move out for the rest of its mission.”
COVID DEATHS: The number of deaths from COVID-19 in the Defense Department has reached 30 with news that a Navy civilian employee died this week in New Jersey.
“The employee had not been at work since April 6 and there was no risk of exposure to other employees,” the Navy said in a statement. The unidentified civilian was assigned to the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey.
As of yesterday, there have been 8,859 cases of coronavirus infection among DOD personnel and dependents, with 4,611 having subsequently recovered.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Military needs to catch up to China on blockchain technology, says Florida congressman
Washington Examiner: Senate confirms John Ratcliffe as next director of national intelligence
Washington Examiner: US delivers medical supplies and ventilators to coronavirus-stricken Russia
Washington Times: Australian researchers see virus design manipulation
USNI News: CNO, Commandant: Naval Forces Can Meet Today’s Obligations, But 2021 Readiness At Risk With Pandemic
Wall Street Journal: Doctors on the Theodore Roosevelt Feared Dozens Would Die in Coronavirus Outbreak
Military Times: The Ban On COVID-19 Survivors Joining Up Has Lifted, But Some Cases Could Still Be Denied
NBC: Pentagon Starts Planning For Military’s Post-COVID-19 Future
AP: China Hikes Defense Spending By 6.6%, Lowest Rate In Years
AP: Iran leader says Israel a ‘cancerous tumor’ to be destroyed
New York Times: As Saudi Official Hid Abroad, His Family Became a Target at Home
Seapower Magazine: USS Zumwalt Completes First Live-Fire Test
Seapower Magazine: Ford Prepares To Integrate Carrier Air Wing
Task & Purpose: Marines Are Finally About To Receive Their First New Pistol In 35 Years
Calendar
FRIDAY | MAY 22
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence Forum webcast on the implications of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “escalate to win policy,” with Mark Schneider, senior analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy; Stephen Blank, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; and retired Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem. Attendance is limited, but a recording of the webcast will be posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation.
12 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies book discussion webinar on “The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare,” with author Christian Brose, former staff director for the Senate Armed Services Committee. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
MONDAY | MAY 25 | MEMORIAL DAY
9 a.m. — Defense Secretary Mark Esper lays a wreath at Arlington National Cemetery to honor men and women in uniform who have died while serving our nation. Also attending the Memorial Day ceremony will be Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and other senior government and defense officials. Livestreamed on Defense.gov.
Later in the day, Esper and Milley join President Trump and other members of the administration for a Memorial Day ceremony at Fort McHenry, Maryland.
WEDNESDAY | MAY 27
2 p.m. — George Washington Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Gen. John Murray, commander, Army Futures Command; and Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
5 p.m. — National Security Institute “NatSec Nightcap” conversation on the national security implications of pandemics, climate change, and the erosion of faith in public institutions, with former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and NSI Founder and Executive Director Jamil Jaffer. Register: https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap-may-27-2020/
THURSDAY | MAY 28
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual roundtable examining the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the future competitive balance between the United States and China, with Tim Junio, CEO and co-founder, Expanse; Heino Klinck, deputy assistant secretary of defense; Vance Serchuk, executive director, KKR Global Institute; retired Adm. Sandy Winnefeld, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and moderated by Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of CSBA. https://zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The Chinese Communist Party is still trying to kill Hong Kong’s autonomy. Beijing’s current proposal will effectively destroy the rule of law in Hong Kong and will give Chairman Xi’s thugs legal cover to treat freedom-loving protesters as terrorists.”
Nebraska Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, member of the Select Committee on Intelligence, on Beijing’s plan to impose a sweeping new security law on Hong Kong.
