President Trump’s supporters have long noted that while his approval ratings are not high, they have often paralleled those of former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, who both crept above 50% by Election Day and won a second term.
But in the just-released Gallup tracking survey, Trump’s approval trajectory has turned to parallel that of former President George H.W. Bush, the last incumbent to lose reelection.
Gallup today said that its Trump approval rating dropped 1 point, to 38%, with 57% disapproving of him. At this stage of his presidency, Bush was also at 38%.
And while he popped up as his 1992 reelection campaign against Democrat Bill Clinton got hot, he ended up at about 40% on Election Day, far short of the accepted 50% needed to win.
Gallup also noted that former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Harry Truman suffered poor approval ratings. Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan while Truman pulled off one of the greatest comebacks ever.
Said Gallup, “The drop in Trump’s job approval rating puts him in the company of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter — the last two one-term presidents, who also had sub-40% approval ratings in June of their reelection years. Earlier this year, Trump’s approval ratings were closer to those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama at a similar point in their presidencies, the last two presidents who won a second term.”
“Trump can hope for an outcome similar to the 1948 election, when voters elected Harry Truman to a second term with a June approval rating (40%) only slightly better than what Trump currently has,” Gallup said.
Trump has had a larger gap between Gallup approval and disapproval ratings, for sure. But in the months prior to the coronavirus crisis, he had brought the numbers close and for a short while had an approval rating above his disapproval.
But the coronavirus has driven the gap wider.
For Trump, there is a historic divide among Republicans and Democrats. Said Gallup, “The current 89-point difference between Republicans’ and Democrats’ ratings of Trump is the largest partisan gap Gallup has ever measured for a presidential approval rating in a single survey. Trump had previously registered 87-point gaps in late January and early February polls, conducted around the time of his Senate impeachment trial and ultimate acquittal.”
