China Rises, America Fades

Defense News carries an interesting piece today on the rise of China and its implications for American allies in the Pacific. Reporting from Taipei, Wendell Minnick spoke with two friends of THE WORLDWIDE STANDARD to better understand the impact of China’s swelling defense budget. Reuben Johnson, THE WEEKLY STANDARD’s aviation and defense correspondent, had this to say:

There is almost no intelligent analysis or thinking in Washington about what China will be like–what the nature of the state and its policies will be–when Beijing is a true superpower.

What disturbs China’s neighbors is that there is little–if any–sort of strategic vision emanating from D.C. on this subject. In the absence of anything other than the usual polemics, they will seek to go their own way in developing a response to the implications of China.

And speaking to the “real fears in the region that China might procure the Tu-22 Backfire bomber and the thrust-vectoring Su-35 fighter,” John Tkacik said that,

Japan certainly needs a fifth-generation fighter, given the tremendous expansion in China’s fourth-generation fighter fleet. The F-22 is a proven killer to anything China can put in the skies. It would make budget sense for Japan to have a fighter that can kill 50 Chinese Su-27s without suffering a loss, as opposed to the F-15, which is merely an even match for the Su-27. The unfortunate thing, however, is that the State Department seems to be hesitating on the approval for the F-22 sale to Japan.

I spoke with the Lexington Institute’s Loren Thompson a couple of weeks ago about the prospects for a sale of F-22s to Japan. He said that it would cost the Chinese approximately $300 billion to build an air defense network capable of thwarting the stealthy, supersonic fighter, though talk of any sale remained “pure speculation.” But the Pentagon’s dithering on the matter perfectly illustrates Johnson’s point–the United States has no coherent policy for balancing against China’s rise.

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