Daily on Defense — Jan. 12, 2017 — Happy Mattis Day

Russia will almost certainly be a key topic given Trump’s perceived admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Mattis will also likely field questions about how he would advise the White House to handle threats from North Korea, China, Iran and terrorist groups in the Middle East.

“My priorities as secretary of defense will be to strengthen military readiness, strengthen our alliances in league with our diplomatic partners, and bring business reforms to the Department of Defense,” Mattis says in prepared remarks released in advance of his testimony.

The tone of the hearing is expected to be friendly, since a bipartisan majority of senators has heaped praise on the legendary Marine commander. But Mattis has also shown a willingness in the past to deviate from Trump. Look for Mattis to stake out where he stands in relation to Trump on a range of issues from the use of torture to the campaign against ISIS to acquisition of the F-35.

Mattis must also reassure wary senators about his respect for civilian control of the military and how Mattis’ time in uniform will affect his service as a civilian. While experts who testified before the committee this week said they believed Mattis merited an exception, some lawmakers, as well as Navy Secretary Ray Mabus, remain concerned about changing the law for the former four-star general.

In his opening statement, Mattis expressed a solid comment to civilian control of the military, calling it a “fundamental tenet of the American military tradition.”

“Civilian leaders bear these responsibilities because the esprit-de-corps of our military, its can-do spirit, and its obedience to​ ​civilian leadership reduces the inclination and power of the military to criticize or oppose the policy it is ultimately ordered to​ ​implement,” he said.

The committee is expected to vote after the hearing on the waiver required for Mattis to be able to serve as defense secretary less than seven years after getting out of the Marine Corps.

The fireworks start at 9:30 a.m., and you can watch live here.

Later in the day, the House Armed Services Committee will hold a markup of its version of the waiver text. Mattis was supposed to make an appearance at that hearing, but his testimony was canceled yesterday morning after the transition team “pulled him,” despite the former general agreeing to testify. Asked why they were muzzling “Mad Dog,” a transition team spokeswoman said Mattis was focusing on his Senate testimony. And according to House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, the decision caused bipartisan angst.

It’s traditional for nominees to appear only before the relevant Senate committee, which handles the confirmation process, but because Mattis’ confirmation requires the House to also pass an exception to the law, some felt he should have to answer to House members as well.

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CLAPPER REACHES OUT: In wake of Trump’s denunciation of the leak of unsubstantiated, salacious rumors about Trump’s alleged activities in Moscow, the nation’s top spymaster spoke to the the president-elect last night and said he didn’t believe the intelligence community was responsible for the disclosure. “I expressed my profound dismay at the leaks that have been appearing in the press, and we both agreed that they are extremely corrosive and damaging to our national security,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in a statement.”  Clapper said the so-called “dossier” was in fact a “private security company document,” which had been circulating in Congress and among reporters for months. “I emphasized that this document is not [original bold] a U.S. Intelligence Community product,” Clapper said. “The IC has not made any judgment that the information in this document is reliable, and we did not rely upon it in any way for our conclusions.” It was provided to Trump, Clapper said, because his “obligation is to ensure that policymakers are provided with the fullest possible picture of any matters that might affect national security.”

In his news conference yesterday, Trump railed against the leaks, “I think it’s pretty sad when intelligence reports get leaked out to the press. I think it’s pretty sad. First of all, it’s illegal. You know, these are classified and certified meetings and reports. … I have many meetings with intelligence. And every time I meet, people are reading about it. Somebody’s leaking it out.”

MENDING THE RIFT: It may fall to Trump’s nominee to head the CIA to restore trust between the new president and his intelligence officials. Today Rep. Mike Pompeo, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, appears for his Senate confirmation hearing. Pompeo graduated first in his West Point class in 1986, has been critical of the President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, and served on the committee that investigated the 2011 attack on a U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya. In prepared remarks, Pompeo is expected to say “It will be the CIA’s mission, and my own, if confirmed, to ensure the agency remains the best in the world at its core mission: collecting what our enemies do not want us to know. In short, the CIA must be the world’s premier espionage service.”

MORE ON TRUMP’S PRESSER: Trump’s first time facing reporters in months didn’t disappoint, unless you were looking for substantive answers to questions such as “Did your campaign collaborate with Russian operatives?” First he thanked the media that didn’t publish the intelligence report compiled by the former British intelligence officer. But then he did confirm that Russia could have been behind the hacking of Democratic National Committee emails and messages from the inbox of John Podesta. That’s after saying for weeks that Russia didn’t do it (while citing WikiLeaks own Julian Assange as his source.) And as the Washington Examiner’s Timothy P. Carney pointed out, it was a weak rebuke.

Trump also doubled down on his comparison between U.S. intelligence agencies and Nazi Germany. It seems like only yesterday he was declaring himself a “big fan” of the community. “It was disgraceful disgraceful, that the intelligence agencies allowed any of the reports that turned out to be so false and so fake out,” he said during the press conference. “I think it’s a disgrace. And I say that and I say that. That’s something Nazi Germany would do and did do.”

On the Senate side, John McCain later confirmed that he did send the dossier to the FBI when it came into his possession. In a statement released Wednesday, McCain said passing the report along was the extent of his involvement in the process. “Late last year, I received sensitive information that has since been made public,” McCain said. “Upon examination of the contents, and unable to make a judgment about their accuracy, I delivered the information to the director of the FBI. That has been the extent of my contact with the FBI or any other government agency regarding this issue.”

And Sen. Tom Cotton, in an interview with the Washington Examiner’s David M. Drucker, shrugged off the fact that the FBI is investigating Trump and Russia. “The FBI is our counter-intelligence agency — domestically in the United States,” Cotton said. “It is their long-standing custom to try to thwart those espionage efforts. The FBI would not be doing its job if it was not looking into claims by a hostile foreign power that it had compromising material — that it had other kinds of efforts to coerce or intimidate decision makers.”

TILLERSON’S TOUR DE FORCE: Originally scheduled for two days, the confirmation hearing for Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson wrapped up after one marathon session. The former Exxon Mobil CEO impressed Chairman Bob Corker by sticking it out for nine hours, and answering questions without notes, for a job he learned he would be doing only a month ago. Tillerson says he has made a clean break after 41 years with the oil giant. “My love of country and my patriotism is going to dictate that I serve no one’s interest, but that of the American people in advancing our national security,” he told senators.

Tillerson took assertive, but nuanced positions on Russia, China and North Korea.  

On Russia, Tillerson said, “I think the important conversation that we have to have with them is, does Russia want to now and forever be an adversary of the United States? Do you want this to get worse or does Russia desire a different relationship? We’re not likely to ever be friends.”

On China he said, “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first, the island-building stops, and second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed,” but he also said he knew of no plans to change the One-China policy

On Korea’s threat to test-launch an ICBM, and Trump’s vow it’s not going to happen: “It’s not going to happen because the president views the North Koreans aren’t going to do one. It could be interpreted that way,” Tillerson said. “I think the priority has to be to deny North Korea the ability to deploy its nuclear weapons.”

One senator who was not so impressed was Florida’s Marco Rubio, who asked some of the most pointed questions about Tillerson’s relationship with Vladimir Putin. He may be the lone Republican to vote against the nominee, and in theory could even block confirmation in committee.

IN THE CROSSHAIRS: Trump’s press conference may have focused on Russian hacking and the legality of his business dealings, but he couldn’t resist getting in a jab at Lockheed Martin’s F-35. “We’re going to do some big things on the F-35 program and perhaps the F-18 program,” Trump said. “It’s going to be a beautiful thing.” Lockheed Martin stock took a dip as he made the remark, but had somewhat recovered by the afternoon.

SPENDING BOOST: McCain and House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry are working on a defense spending plan with a $640 billion topline for fiscal 2018, about $30 billion more than fiscal 2017. More details to come next week, but a source close to Thornberry tells us it’ll include some of Trump’s priorities to rebuild the military, such as more ships and a larger active-duty Army.

AT THE HELM: The 115th Congress will see several new faces at the top of the House Armed Services subcommittees. Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., will sit at the head of the seapower subcommittee, filling the seat left by former Rep. Randy Forbes after his primary loss. Wittman spoke yesterday at the Surface Navy Association symposium about the need for a 355-ship fleet, so you can expect his subcommittee to be a busy one.

Other new subcommittee leaders: Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., takes over chairmanship of the readiness subcommittee. The vacancy he left at the top seat of the emerging threats and capabilities subcommittee will be filled by Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.  And Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and a former Marine, will chair the personnel subcommittee that oversees benefits and pay raises.

MEANWHILE IN MOSUL: The U.S. says Iraqi forces are pretty much in control of the eastern part of Mosul, and the Islamic State forces are defending an ever-shrinking part of the city on the western side of the Tigris River. “In terms of the doctrinal definition of defeat, you can say there has been a defeat there, because they have certainly broken their will to fight,” said Army Col. Brett Sylvia, commander of the U.S. mission to advise and assist Iraq in its battle against the Islamic State. The Iraqi government says the operation to secure Mosul is 70 to 80 percent complete in the eastern section of the northern Iraqi city. But Sylvia conceded, “the fight is not over.”

TRAGEDY OF WAR: The U.S. military is out this morning with the results of its probe into civilian casualties caused by U.S. airstrikes in Kunduz, Afghanistan, last november. The investigation concludes 33 civilians were killed and 26 wounded when the U.S. bombs collapsed the buildings that the Taliban was using to fire on U.S. and Afghan special forces. The investigation also found the strikes were conducted in self defense. “Regardless of the circumstances, I deeply regret the loss of innocent lives,” said Gen. John Nicholson, U.S. Afghanistan commander, in a press release.

SECNAV BY THE NUMBERS: In his final breakfast with the Defense Writers Group yesterday, Mabus gave a rundown of the future of several programs and the legacy he leaves with respect to gender neutrality and clean energy. One stat: he’s travelled 1.35 million miles during his eight-year tenure.

COMING SOON TO AMAZON: In his a letter to the Pentagon’s chief ethics officer outlining his plans to avoid conflict of interest as defense secretary, Mattis revealed he’s written a book that has yet to be published. “I have a publishing agreement with Random House Publishers for royalties from the future publication of an untitled book that I have written,” Mattis said in a Jan. 6 letter to the Pentagon’s general counsel. Mattis said the book is done, and pledged to do nothing to promote it during his time as Pentagon leader. No word on whether the warrior monk has penned a scholarly treatise on modern warfare, or a fictional spy thriller, or perhaps a cookbook, given his reputation for baking cookies.  We’re thinking the former.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Proposed 355-Ship Navy Could Open Door to Increased Destroyer Production

Breaking Defense: Navy Will Get Supercarrier USS Ford In April – Finally

Military.com: Mabus Slams Pentagon Weapons Tester on Littoral Combat Ship

UPI: DARPA awards Sikorsky Phase 3 contract for ALIAS program

Politico: Dems want assurances from Mattis on women in combat

Task and Purpose: What It Takes To Run The Military, And Why Mattis Is Perfect

USNI News: Coast Guard Commandant Will Stress Maritime Security to Trump Administration

Air Force Times: James says goodbye after three years as Air Force secretary

Military Times: Marines use science fiction to envision, prepare for the battlefield of the future

Army Times: Army report: Self-doubt and sleep deprivation led to 2-star’s suicide

Calendar

THURSDAY | JANUARY 12

8:30  a.m. Hyatt Regency Crystal City, 2799 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington. U.S. Southern Commander Adm. Kurt Tidd speaks at the Surface Navy Association annual symposium, followed by Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller at 9:15 a.m.

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. The Senate Armed Services Committee holds a confirmation hearing for retired Gen. James Mattis to serve as the next defense secretary. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Hart 216. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence holds an open hearing, followed by a closed session. intelligence.senate.gov

12 p.m. Rayburn 2168. A panel of experts discusses the future of the Iran nuclear deal under Trump’s administration. niacouncil.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The House Armed Services Committee hosts an organizational meeting, followed by a mark up of the waiver that would allow Mattis to serve. armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts talks about how the next president should combat Al Qaeda in Syria. atlanticcouncil.org

FRIDAY | JANUARY 13

9:30 a.m. 1333 H St. NW. Rep. Adam Schiff discusses the Russian hacking of the U.S. election. americanprogressaction.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses lessons learned from Russia’s intervention in Syria. csis.org

1:30 p.m. 601 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Army Secretary Eric Fanning discusses the future of the service. ndia.org

3:30 p.m. 901 17th St. NW. Retired Adm. James Stavridis talks about the growing problem of U.S. national security. stimson.org

TUESDAY | JANUARY 17

8 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson talks about the future of the Navy in a Defense One Live event. defenseone.com

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Ben Rhodes, the assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for strategic communications and speechwriting, speaks about lessons learned about national security from which the next administration can benefit. csis.org

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 18

9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Gen. David Goldfein, the Air Force chief of staff, speaks about the future of American air power. aei.org

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers the nomination of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to be the U.S. representative to the United Nations. foreign.senate.gov

THURSDAY | JANUARY 19

11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments releases a new report titled “Preserving the Balance—A Eurasia Defense Strategy.” csbaonline.org