For several weeks, President Obama has been talking up the economy, hinting at a robust recovery that he wants everyone to know has arrived – only four or five years late.
“At every step, we were told our goals were misguided or too ambitious,” Obama said in his State of the Union speech in January, winding up for a big I-told-you-so about what he called “the fastest economic growth in over a decade.”
From such gloss and Obama’s recent suggestion of “momentum,” one could be forgiven for expecting flapper girls to appear suddenly from the wings, as if America were back in the Roaring 1920’s all over again.
The fact is, there have been a few modestly encouraging signs of job growth in recent months. And things could certainly be worse than they are. But they’re not that great, and the public got a stark reminder of this on Good Friday, when the March employment numbers were released by the Labor Department.
Only 126,000 net new jobs were created in the month, fewer than for more than two years, and well below the 245,000 expected. Worse, job creation numbers for January and February were revised downward by a combined 69,000. The seemingly stronger economy of the fourth quarter of 2014 has fizzled in 2015.
The White House accurately but foolishly boasted that the numbers have at least been positive for 61 months in a row. They might as well throw in that no one on staff has been eaten by an alligator so far this year. Positive job growth means the labor market is not losing ground too quickly against population growth, but that is to be expected.
The Labor Department’s numbers show that the labor force also shrank by 96,000 in March, placing labor participation at a 36-year low. Part-time work is stuck at high levels hit when the recession began, but there are still 750,000 fewer full-time jobs than there were before the 2007-09 recession.
The share of people currently working, which has shown little improvement during Obama’s “recovery,” remains mired near a three-decade low. Wages were stagnant in March and hours of work were down. Other indicators add to the gloom. Construction spending is down and the ISM Manufacturing Index came in below expectations last week.
This was the worst jobs report in some time, and it is a reality check to a White House that seems far more optimistic about its policies than anyone else is. The numbers are consistent with the Republicans’ more pessimistic narrative. The economy is struggling to keep moving because Obama has hobbled it with tax increases and new health-care-related and environmental burdens on employers.
The new normal is a sad and disappointing one. Democrats will have a tough time keeping the White House if this continues into 2016.
