Flood of foreclosures recedes

Published August 25, 2010 4:00am ET



Though foreclosed homes will continue to dot the D.C. area, the worst of the area’s foreclosure crisis is easing, experts say.

Data from RealtyTrac, a California firm that compiles foreclosure information, show the number of filings across the region dropped about 26 percent from July 2009 to July 2010, with most jurisdictions reporting a decline. The number of filings regionwide rose less than 1 percent from June to July 2010.  

“It seems to have clearly plateaued,” said John McClain, senior fellow and deputy director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

“I’m skeptical we’ll encounter that level of discomfort again,” said Anirban Basu, chairman of Sage Policy Group, an economic consulting firm in Baltimore. “To the extent there is still a lingering hangover from the housing bust, certain jurisdictions and certain product types will continue to feel the most pressure.”

Any foreclosure hangover will be felt most acutely in Prince George’s County in Maryland and Prince William County in Virginia, Basu said.

Hard-hit Prince William County is further down the road to recovery, however, because trouble started there first and Northern Virginia has an overall stronger job market.

Foreclosure filings dropped by more than 50 percent from July 2009 to last month in Prince William County, according to RealtyTrac figures.

There also will be a lingering effect on the condominium market, particularly in the city, according to Basu. There is an oversupply of condos, thanks in part to apartment conversions, and condo buyers being less experienced, he said.

Dave Newell, a Realtor with Re/Max Presidential in Fairfax, said he’s seeing marked improvement in Prince William County’s housing market because a large number of homes already have gone through foreclosure and the number of foreclosures for sale is now half of what it was two years ago.

“The only thing that’s helping to stabilize it is reduction in inventory,” he said. “People are being a little more careful about putting their home on the market unless they have to.”

Buyers are also finding it a bit easier to purchase short sales and foreclosures, Newell said — but not much. Two years ago, from his experience, 10 percent of short sales were settled, and that number might be 20 percent now. Investors are most interested in distressed properties, he said.

It’s arguable that there’s a place for investors to buy distressed homes, improve them and return them to the market, said Boyd Campbell, managing partner of Century 21 Home Center in Lanham.

Investors have two major advantages over move-up buyers, he said: They generally pay in cash, and they often have “stronger stomachs” with regard to the condition of a property.

“Banks are leapfrogging, sometimes, over traditional buyers, even good traditional buyers, for offers from investors,” he said. 

Nationally, there should be a second wave of foreclosures, Basu said. But the D.C. area’s comparatively strong job market should prevent the second wave from being a major problem locally. The federal presence distinguishes the region’s economy from other regional economies, and the federal government is a growth industry, which helps the local labor market, he said.