A new survey of likely voters in several swing states finds presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 5 points to 12. But two hypothetical GOP candidates perform much better than Trump against Clinton, with one Republican beating her in all seven swing states polled.
The new poll for Ballotpedia, conducted by Evolving Strategies, shows Clinton beating Trump by double digits in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Trump does slightly better in Ohio (where he trails by six) and Iowa (where he trails by five). If Republicans hold every state they won in 2012, they would need to win as many of six of these states to win the White House. If Ballotpedia’s numbers for Trump hold, that looks like an impossibility.
But Trump isn’t anyone’s idea of a normal Republican, and there’s reason to think a different GOP candidate could do much better, and even beat Clinton, in these swing states. Evolving Strategies also asked likely voters to consider match-ups with two other Republicans, Ohio governor John Kasich and House speaker Paul Ryan. Both performed markedly better than Trump against Clinton.
Kasich, for instance, was shown to be beating Clinton in all but one of the seven swing states surveyed (he’s dead-even in North Carolina). Ryan doesn’t always win against Clinton, but he only falls behind her in three of the seven states—Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia—and by two points. Take a look at the two charts below:
Neither Kasich nor Ryan are actively running for president, so the survey may underestimate or overestimate the Republicans’ actual support. Nonetheless, the poll does reveal how much worse Trump is currently performing in critical swing states relative to two other prominent and plausible candidates in the same party.
Some national convention delegates and Republican activists are trying to use the rules of the party to avoid nominating Trump at the Cleveland convention. The movement is even getting tacit support among a small number of elected Republicans.
