More polling has emerged in the fallout of Joe Biden’s big debate bust.
Although state polling still spells danger for the former vice president, Biden received three bits of good news today. First, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Biden leading both among voters leaning Democrat at 29%, and among registered Democrats at 30%. Those figures for the flailing runner-up, Senator Bernie Sanders, are 23% and 19% respectively, and those for Harris are 11% and 13%.
Next, an Economist/YouGov poll found Biden only dropped by two points, to 23%, since before the debates, and more importantly, that it’s Sanders who cratered, falling from 15% to 9%, losing ground to Harris, who reversed those figures. Warren kept her 19% share.
What’s keeping Biden’s numbers up is the fact that he remains the candidate most overwhelmingly seen as able to beat President Trump. He is also most voters’ preferred second choice candidate.
This matters, because Americans like Trump’s America, and that means they want modest change, not revolution.
Oh, sure, they loathe the constant chaos unfolding on cable news daily. They detest Congress and most loathe Trump on a personal level. But Trump’s America is treating them well. At this point three years ago, 7 in 10 Americans believed the country was going in the wrong direction and just 24% believed it was going in the right direction, according to the Economist/YouGov. Today, the same poll has just 5 in 10 believing we’re moving in the wrong direction and 35% believing we’re moving in the right direction.
At this point in President Barack Obama’s second term, Economist/YouGov found that half of the nation opposed Obama’s job on the economy, and 42% supported him. Today just 39% of American oppose Trump’s performance on the economy, and nearly half support it.
Incumbency is an already understated advantage, and especially so when the country is doing well. The Democratic primary base cares now more than ever about beating Trump. Even though Biden’s taking on water, a plurality of Democrats nationally still believes that he’s the best bet to do it.
