One of four people — Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton — will probably become the next president. But as of today one can make a better case for why each likely will not be elected than will. Were he anyone else, Donald Trump, who has won New Hampshire by 21 points and South Carolina by 10 while losing by only five points in Iowa, would be described as being the runaway winner. But he isn’t exactly a usual candidate, and this isn’t a usual year.

Trump has a high floor of followers who will follow him anywhere. But his high floor isn’t getting any higher even as his low ceiling gets even lower. While he usually scores in the mid to low 30s, 39 percent of all Republicans say they will never support him, a number that has doubled most recently. Even while winning, he is being rejected by 65 percent to 70 percent of the voters, and he loses in polling in one-on-one matchups with Rubio and/or Ted Cruz.