A D.C.-based think tank predicts that the Islamic State will likely launch an attack against the West over the next 45 days as Muslims begin their celebration of Ramadan.

The Institute for the Study of War’s forecast says that the terrorist group “will likely attack the West” during Ramadan, which begins on June 6 and ends July 5. The Islamic State traditionally uses the annual religious observance to increase the number of attacks and tweak its strategy, the report said.