The Bullish and Bearish Cases for Rubio

The crowd seems receptive, but not jubilant. It seems like it’s split about equally between people who are supporting the candidate and people who are shopping. And Rubio opens by referring to his debate misstep. He doesn’t make a joke out of it, though. He tries to make a larger point, doubling-down and unpacking what he was saying. Here’s the passage, in full:

It strikes me that most Republicans would agree with this diagnosis. But who knows? We won’t know the true effect of the debate until the votes are counted. That said, you can see your way to both the bullish and bearish cases for Rubio.

The pessimistic case (if you’re a Rubio supporter) goes like this: Rubio needed to close the sale with New Hampshire voters and he blew it. Threw a pick-six in the end zone. Left a hanging curve over the plate. Choose your sports metaphor.

But it’s worse than that. The best political attacks turn an opponent’s strength into a weakness. By indicting Rubio’s candidate skills—the fact that he’s so polished and talks so well—Chris Christie was attempting not just to blow up Rubio in the debate, but to diminish his biggest advantage and poison everything voters hear from him going forward. Voters will wonder, Is that answer Rubio just gave on ISIS, or vaccinations, or the estate tax a sign of a smart, fluid candidate? Or just another rehearsed, scripted soundbite?

It gets worse still: Christie’s attack dovetailed beautifully with the Right to Rise anti-Rubio ads blanketing the state. A voter just tuning into the debate last night who’s only seen campaign ads, and not the candidates themselves, would have seen the exchange as confirming the charges against Rubio—that he’s an empty suit who has never accomplished anything—that he’s heard over and over. The combination—Right to Rise softening up the target from the air; Christie dropping the hammer on the ground—couldn’t have been more effective if they’d coordinated it.

Seen in this light, Rubio’s stumble wasn’t like Rick Perry’s debate memory flub—it was more like the Mitt Romney 47 percent recording: a brutal hit that threatens to bleed the candidate for a long time afterwards.

The optimistic case (if you’re a Rubio supporter) goes like this: It was a bad moment, and worrisome in that Rubio lacked the situational awareness to see that he was repeating himself while being charged with being scripted. But on the other hand, he was repeating a statement that is true and that many Republicans probably agree with.

Then there’s this: Anyone who watched the entire debate had to be impressed with Rubio’s command of substantive issue. His answers on ISIS and abortion and gay marriage, for instance, were cogent and among the best of the night. If the charge is that Rubio is too inexperienced to know anything, it certainly looked like he knew quite a lot. His grasp of the issues seemed at least the equal of anyone else on stage.

Rubio is also lucky that it was Christie doing the damage to him, and not Bush. As of right now, Bush is closest in New Hampshire polling and the one with the resources to move on if he finishes ahead of Rubio. If Christie finishes behind Rubio in New Hampshire it’s hard to see how he keeps going. South Carolina won’t be any friendlier to him.

Rubio’s strategic goal all along has been to finish ahead of Kasich, Bush, and Christie in New Hampshire. If Rubio loses voters to Cruz and finished behind him, it matters very little. If Rubio finishes behind either Bush or Christie, it could be fatal to his campaign. Finishing behind Kasich might be survivable (so long as Bush and Christie are in Rubio’s rearview) but it complicates his life greatly, and makes the race much more likely to collapse quickly to a two-way, Trump-Cruz affair.

One other thing: Having the Super Bowl tonight might help Rubio, too. By tomorrow morning, it’s possible that the entire Mr. Roboto episode could seem like a media-creation from a week ago. We’ll see.