Two days ago, London’s Sunday Times confirmed what many close to the Iran debate already knew — that Russian scientists are actively assisting the Iranians in their nuclear program. If you omit the disastrous 2007 NIE from the strategic calculus here, most credible intel estimates had identified the 2010-2011 timeframe as the Iranian weapons program’s point of no return. Unknown is whether or not those intel shops factored Russian aid into that equation, making the Times’ revelation a frightening variable. So two key points here. First the Israelis have fully penetrated Iran’s nuclear facilities. That means Israel can dictate the time and tempo of any military action against the Iranian regime. That’s a good thing. Second, with the understanding the nuclear genie can’t be put back in the bottle, we know that Iran doesn’t have a weapon… yet. That’s also a good thing. Downside: if Russia is indeed helping Iran build a functional weapon, there’s a good chance it’d actually work. Both of North Korea’s tests were considered flops, in that inefficient bomb construction led to yields less than the Fat Man/Little Boy detonations. Russia mastered the nuclear craft decades ago, so if they share their considerable knowledge with the Iranians, less enriched uranium will be needed for tests, which means more will be available for deployable weapons and that those weapons would presumably produce a larger yield. Further, Western powers might need to prepare themselves for the fact that hard-hitting UN sanctions will likely never materialize. If the U.S., France, and UK press ahead with sanctions outside a Security Council resolution, Russian and China will have a stronger hold on global energy supplies, which was probably Putin’s goal from the get go. The fact that President Obama has already demonstrated to the world community that when the going gets tough, the U.S. goes home, deeply complicates matters. It makes war more likely, in that it allows Iran and Russia to limit our options in the exact same way that North Korea did: either decimate their program militarily, or resign yourself to the reality that another member of the Axis of Evil is going nuclear.
