Russian President Vladimir Putin might authorize a false flag operation against Ukraine to create a pretext for a military conflict, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“No one should be surprised if Russia instigates a provocation or incident, then tries to use it to justify military intervention, hoping that by the time the world realizes the ruse, it’ll be too late,” Blinken told reporters. “The idea that Ukraine is the aggressor in this situation is absurd.”
Blinken’s warning followed a virtual meeting of NATO foreign ministers to discuss the array of Russian forces along the Ukrainian border, whose marshaling is perceived as a menace to Ukraine and the Western security bloc. A series of meetings between U.S. and European officials has been scheduled for next week, but trans-Atlantic officials do not assume that those talks will avert bloodshed.
“The risk of conflict is real,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Friday. “Russia’s aggressive actions seriously undermine the security order in Europe. NATO remains committed to our dual-track approach to Russia: strong deterrence and defense combined with meaningful dialogue.”
RUSSIA ‘NOT BLUFFING’ ON NATO ROLLBACK, WARNS OF ‘LARGE-SCALE CONFLICT IN EUROPE’
Russia’s demand that North American and Western European members of NATO scale back their security relationship with the countries that joined the alliance after the collapse of the Soviet Union has stoked misgivings about whether Putin’s threats can be managed without violence.
“There’s no way NATO can compromise on the principle of the right of every nation to choose its own path,” Stoltenberg said. “We can not end up in a situation where we have kind of second-class NATO members, where NATO as an alliance is not allowed to protect them in the same way as to protect all the allies.”
Blinken prefaced next week’s talks with a lengthy indictment of Putin’s hostility toward European countries that have looked westward since their emergence from the wreckage of the Soviet Union.
“What’s happening in Ukraine is not only about Ukraine. It’s part of a broader pattern of destabilizing, dangerous, and often illegal behavior by Moscow as it tries to build a sphere of influence that covers the countries that were once under Soviet dominion,” Blinken said. “Let’s remember that over the past two decades, Russia invaded two neighboring countries — Ukraine and Georgia — and maintains troops in munitions in Moldova against the will of the government.”
The meeting on Monday could give Blinken’s team a chance to scout for avenues of compromise, though European officials are uneasy about such bilateral talks. President Joe Biden’s team reportedly “is compiling a list of options for force posture changes in Europe to discuss with Russia at the talks,” an administration official told NBC News, in exchange for a corollary drawdown by Russia.
“We would far prefer a diplomatic path and a diplomatic solution to a crisis that Russia has brought forth,” Blinken said. “We believe that there are areas where we can make progress if Russia has legitimate concerns about our actions … But again, it has to be a two-way street.”
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Stoltenberg cautioned against an excess of optimism. “We will do whatever we can, make every effort to ensure a political way forward, preventing the use of force, preventing Russia from using military force against Ukraine,” he said. “But at the same time, and in parallel, we need to be prepared for that [possibility that] the talks break down and that diplomacy will fail.”
