ABOARD A U.S. MILITARY AIRCRAFT — Defense Secretary Ash Carter will meet with his Turkish counterpart this week, but it will focus on the campaign against the Islamic State, not the recent coup attempt that chilled the relationship between the Washington and Ankara.
But experts say that the best way to fix the rift may be for the U.S. to give Turkey some space to work through internal issues.
“When you’re dealing with a temper tantrum, sometimes the best thing you can do is just be quiet and leave it alone. You don’t want to appease it,” said Michael Rubin, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute.
Carter will meet with Turkish Minister of Defense Fikri Isik on Thursday while in London for a United Nations peacekeeping defense ministerial. Carter told reporters traveling with him to the United Kingdom that the campaign against the Islamic State is his biggest concern, not the recent coup attempt that halted U.S. air operations out of Incirlik air base and caused a rift between the two allies.
“I think what we’re going to be doing is talking this out and saying how we can achieve that objective together recognizing all the complications,” he said aboard the plane on Tuesday. “That’s the topic I’d single out. When I talk to him, we talk about NATO business, refugees, and other matters than counter-ISIL, but I think that’s the place we’ll focus.”
He also said he and Isik will likely discuss reforms Turkey is looking to make in the military command -and-control organization.
Turkey, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East, gives U.S. and NATO planes access to Incirlik and is also a customer for the U.S. industrial base.
Tensions between the U.S. and Turkey have simmered ever since the failed coup attempt this summer. Turkish officials accused the U.S. of being behind the attempt to overthrow the government. Another point of contention has been America’s refusal to extradite Fethullah Gulen, a cleric living in Pennsylvania who Turks believe orchestrated the coup.
Vice President Joe Biden met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan late last month to try to smooth things over, a crucial diplomatic mission that many experts said was a bust.
Carter said the U.S. and Turkey have “returned to the level of cooperation” before the coup.
“There were some temporary disruptions in the things that we were doing which were very understandable … there was a coup after all,” he said. “But they’re restored now.”
Luke Coffey, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation, agreed with Rubin that a better strategy might be for the U.S. to give Turkey a chance to cool down before making any changes to the long-standing relationship between the two NATO allies.
“Perhaps we need to give them a little time and space to work these issues through and to sort of vent,” Coffey said. “When someone says something in the heat of the moment, they usually end up regretting it. We’re hearing a lot of things from Turkey that later down the road they might regret they said.”
Still, Coffey said the U.S. can make some changes to its communications strategy to help improve upon the relationship. For starters, he urged the U.S. to be “more sensitive” in its partnerships with groups in the fight against the Islamic State that are perceived as connected to terrorists in Turkey.
“There were pictures leaked of U.S. special forces with [Kurdish] YPG wearing YPG shoulder patches … that’s just stupid,” Coffey said. “If we have to have U.S. special forces working with these guys, which in a way I think is dealing with the devil, let’s do it in a more sensitive way.”
Rubin also suggested that the U.S. should temper its relationship with Turkey and slow down negotiations to try to wait out Erdogan’s time in office.
“We’ve got to hook the relationship onto life support until Erdogan is out of the picture. That means slow-rolling some things and not being too ambitious when it comes to Turkey,” he said. “You don’t want to push things to the point where there’s a rupture, but you also don’t want to walk away.”
Despite the cooling relationship, Coffey said he’d be “shocked” if Turkey kicked the U.S. or NATO out of Incirlik, which was opened to U.S. aircraft striking the Islamic State in August 2015. Still he acknowledged that Incirlik is a Turkish air base and that it has the right to ask both the U.S. and NATO to leave.
Rubin also pointed out that “Erdogan needs us more than we need him,” noting that the Turkish leader has used German Patriot missiles from NATO and American Predator drones, assets that could go away if U.S. forces are kicked out of Incirlik.
“He wants our technology and wants our support. I think, quietly, he can be reminded that that support is not unconditional,” Rubin said.
At the same time, Rubin said the U.S. should look to diversify its options for bases in the region that could be used to launch operations if Incirlik is no longer available. As a “Plan B,” he talked about air bases in Romania and Jordan that could be used by American forces.
“It’s a lot easier to negotiate when all our eggs aren’t in Turkey’s pocket,” he said.
Turkey has reportedly been considering allowing Russia to use the base to launch airstrikes in Syria, but Coffey said any agreement between Ergodan and Russian President Vladimir Putin would have to overcome centuries of animosity between the two countries.
He also said he didn’t expect the rocky patch to affect two major planned purchases: Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and the F70 utility helicopter, built by Sikorsky, which is owned by Lockheed as well. In both cases, Turkey needs the equipment, and in the case of the joint strike fighter, Turkey will get a share of the work. Industrial opportunities for Turkish companies on the F-35 program are expected to reach $12 billion, according to Lockheed Martin.
“If Turkey can find a partner that they can actually do a deal with they’re very lucky, so when they have a partner where there’s agreement, they probably don’t want to screw it up,” he said.
Defense experts have also said that one partner pulling out of the F-35 program would not have a major impact on the cost for U.S. aircraft.
