Conservatives should remain hopeful about the California recall, but political gravity is starting to take its course. It looks like liberal Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is going to survive the election, but conservatives should not let their efforts end there.
As the election has neared, Newsom is beginning to pull away in polling. Since the end of August, he has enjoyed a double-digit lead over the recall in most polls, and FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has him sitting at a comfortable 16-point lead, with 54% supporting keeping him in place.
Is it possible that the polls are understating support for removal or the enthusiasm gap between Newsom’s detractors and his supporters? Sure. But California is still a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. Over 46% of registered voters in California are Democrats. More than half of independent voters lean toward the Democratic Party as well.
The fact is that Newsom’s removal, which once seemed possible and does still have an outside shot of happening, was always less likely than him surviving the recall. That is just the political reality in California. But this can’t be the white whale for California conservatives. If the recall does indeed fail, conservatives shouldn’t throw up their hands and begin ignoring California once again.
The issues are clearly there. The progressive paradise of California is marred by poverty, homelessness, energy woes, and, of course, the high cost of living. The voters are there too: California Democrats depend largely on the support of Latinos, a group that Republicans have shown they can attract in the state (as they have in California’s 21st Congressional District) and out (as Texas and Florida have shown) when they put in the effort to reach them.
The fact is that even if the recall succeeds and someone such as Republican radio host Larry Elder becomes California’s next governor, Democrats will still have a veto-proof majority in the California Legislature. A Democrat would almost certainly take back the governor’s mansion in 2022. Even if the recall succeeds, California won’t be changed overnight. The Golden State is going to require a long-term commitment.
None of this is meant to sound pessimistic. As a California resident, I am as hopeful that Newsom is voted out of office as anyone else. But the reality of the situation must be acknowledged. Saving California from damaging progressive policies doesn’t end whenever California’s glacial election count determines a winner. It starts at the district level, winning over voters and trimming the Democratic majority in the state Legislature. It won’t be a quick and easy victory, but it is doable, and it will be worth it in the long run.
