Joe Biden’s collapse in the latest CNN poll following his abysmal debate performance bolsters the original conventional wisdom surrounding his candidacy: that his underlying support was soft and wouldn’t hold up scrutiny.
Though Biden is still ahead of the field in the post-debate poll, with 22%, that’s just five points ahead of Sen. Kamala Harris, who surged into second after her strong showing. Just last month, Biden had 32% support in the same poll, and that was down from an April poll taken after he announced his candidacy, when he was at 39% — or 24 points ahead of his nearest competitor, who at the time was Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The popular view among many pundits before Biden formally announced his bid was that his strong polling was mainly a function of his high name recognition and association with Barack Obama, and that it would recede once he entered the race and his old views were exposed as out of touch with the modern Democratic Party.
At first, as Biden shrugged off many controversies and soared to a strong lead in both national and early state polls, analysts had been reconsidering whether his support was more resilient, and that maybe he’d defy the experts as Donald Trump did in 2016.
That may not be the case.
True, there’s a long way between now and the first primaries and this is just one poll. But the debate stage was the first time that Biden had to face direct fire from an opponent, and he came off old and befuddled. As the early states get closer, the intensity of these debates — and the scrutiny of his record — will only grow.
If the nomination isn’t going to be a cakewalk, it’s questionable whether he has the stamina to win.
