THE STRANGEST SEASON in California’s long, strange political trip has begun with a declaration of candidacy for a governorship that isn’t vacant, a withdrawal from a Senate campaign that hasn’t really begun, and a rumor mill spinning out of control. The declaration of candidacy came from Congressman Darrell Issa, who has injected cash and leadership into the campaign to place a recall election before the voters in early fall. The target is Governor Gray Davis, whose approval ratings make Nixon’s in August of 1974 look pretty good. Issa’s commitment has energized the effort and there is little doubt now that Davis will be fighting for his political life come September. Orange County’s powerful Lincoln Club stepped up with a $100,000 in recall cash last Friday and pledged to lay out another $150,000 soon. The Club doesn’t waste money on symbolism. The recall will qualify, and Davis will face a straight up-or-down vote. If 50 percent (plus 1) of the voters say throw Governor Clouseau out, he will be gone, and eyes turn to the second question on the ballot–who should replace him?
This is the odd feature of California’s bizarre law–the candidate with the most votes wins, no matter how small the plurality. There is no run-off–and theoretically dozens of candidates could be running. Issa filed papers last week to put his own name on the recall ballot, and the GOP should rally around him given his leadership in moving the recall from daydream to reality. But other ambitious Republicans–including state Senator Tom McClintock, former LA mayor Richard Riordan, and, of course, Arnold–may not defer to the congressman.
On the Democratic side there are three serious Democrats–Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, Attorney General Bill Lockyer, and Treasurer Phil Angelides. All three of these second-term incumbents are planning to run to succeed Davis, but the recall complicates matters. If one of them gets in, then the other two will pile on. But if all three enter the race, the odds of an Issa win skyrocket.
Enter (so say the purveyors of gossip) state Democratic chair Art Torres, desperate to keep a lock on statehouse no matter how inept or hated his chief executive becomes. Torres is said to be peddling a plan to put Senator Dianne Feinstein on the recall ballot as the “consensus” candidate who would, if the effort to save Gray failed, complete a long and distinguished career of public service as the governor who rescued California from Nero’s fiddling. Feinstein intends to quit after her current term is up in Washington–and this way she gets to appoint her own successor.
This scenario has some GOPers in a tizzy. The prospect of President Bush barnstorming the state in 2004 with a challenger to Barbara Boxer at his side and the Gray Davis anchor dragging down the Democratic presidential candidate had energized the party regulars. Now the recall is shaking everything up, and some in the Sacramento delegation are upset with Issa for turning the table over on the big game.
So it was against this backdrop that congressman Doug Ose, believed to be one of the stronger candidates available to challenge Boxer because of his wealth, suddenly withdrew from the Senate race last week. He was just the latest in a long line of potential Boxer opponents to say, no thanks. GOP jitters increased as a result. The Republican base hates Boxer and will rally around a candidate–but they do need a candidate.
Throughout these various dramas, the White House political machine has remained quiet, allowing the various currents to cross and re-cross. There has been no push for recall from Rove Central, nor any attempt to stop it either (even though a Governor Issa could be a serious contender for a GOP nomination in 2008). The Lincoln Club typically does not commit its resources without reading between Washington’s lines very closely, but this time the perilous state of the state may have prompted the money men and women to move independently of the national organization.
The hot stove league rarely has this big of an early season dust-up, and the recall of the un-Governor has arrived at just the right time–a sort of exhibition for the main Golden State event in November of 2004. Let the games begin.
Hugh Hewitt is the host of The Hugh Hewitt Show, a nationally syndicated radio talkshow, and a contributing writer to The Daily Standard. His new book, In, But Not Of, has just been published by Thomas Nelson.
