CHARLESTON, South Carolina — Move over Georgia. South Carolina is poised to become the next center of the political universe as the 2024 presidential primary elections get underway.
With President Joe Biden promoting the state that won him the 2020 Democratic nomination and South Carolina’s own former U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley announcing her campaign for the 2024 Republican nod as speculation mounts Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) could soon do the same, the state will have outsize importance during the next year.
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South Carolina has always been important to presidential politics as the host of the third nominating contest and the first in the South. But Coastal Carolina University American studies director Drew Kurlowski predicts South Carolina will be a more prominent “tastemaker” as Democrats and Republicans hope the state will “bring something different” to their primaries.
“With respect to the Democratic Party, South Carolina voters are much more moderate and much more diverse than their counterparts in Iowa and New Hampshire,” he told Washington Examiner. “As far as the Republican Party, they continue to place South Carolina near the top of their list, and South Carolina will continue to be an important test for any GOP hopeful.”
As Democrats raise concerns about Biden’s age, the president this month protected himself from primary challenges by successfully calling on the Democratic National Committee to change the presidential calendar. Now, South Carolina and its black-dominated Democratic state party that awarded Biden with his first nominating contest win in three campaigns will be the party’s first, replacing Iowa and New Hampshire. DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison, himself a South Carolinian, has underscored that the order can be reevaluated after 2024.
But South Carolina is also important to Republicans, the state reprising its role as the party’s third nominating contest. South Carolina has picked the GOP’s standard-bearer during the last couple of decades, and although the state helped establishment candidates, such as former President George H.W. Bush, former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS), former President George W. Bush, and the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2008, respectively, it hindered Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) in 2016 in favor of former President Donald Trump.
But Charles Bierbauer, a former Washington reporter and dean emeritus of the University of South Carolina’s College of Information and Communications, downplayed Haley and Scott’s prospects based solely on their home state.
“South Carolinians who have run for president have run rather anemic campaigns,” he said. “Lindsey Graham, Mark Sanford, Fritz Hollings. Strom Thurmond did better. For that matter, so did native South Carolinian Jesse Jackson.”
“But I can imagine Nikki Haley or Tim Scott winning a South Carolina Republican primary and being ignored across the rest of the country,” he added. “The Trump core is still oriented to white male Christian supremacy.”
Regardless, Haley and Scott appear to be undeterred. A day after Haley’s first campaign rally, Scott, who himself embarked on a pre-bid “listening tour,” was adamant on local radio that more than one South Carolinian can seek the presidency.
“I bet there’s room for three or four,” he told The Morning Answer with Joey Hudson. “Certainly, there’s definitely room for two.”
Haley appeals to women and business-minded Republicans who have distanced themselves from MAGA lawmakers, but so does Scott, the only black GOP senator. The pair, who supported Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in 2016 before working with Trump when he was president, also share a base and donors. But while Haley has both George W. Bush and tea party credentials, she, too, has complicated relationships with Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) and the state legislators.
Tyrone DeLong Dash, 72, and Lydia Cotton, 60, attended Scott’s listening tour launch, a Charleston County GOP Black History Month dinner, separately but agreed it was too early to take sides.
Dash did praise Haley for removing the Confederate battle flag from the grounds of the South Carolina state Capitol after the 2015 Charleston church shooting.
“When you look at the former president, I’m not sure has he ever stood up or anything?” the black business owner and entrepreneur said.
Dash dismissed Trump since he is facing myriad legal problems, but Cotton, a Latino leader from Puerto Rico, did not discount him, particularly if he is the last Republican left standing.
“I want to listen for now — only listen,” she said. “I’m looking for more freedom.”
A Quinnipiac University poll published this week found Trump leads an unsettled field with 42% of the Republican primary vote to Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (FL) 36%, Haley’s 5%, former Vice President Mike Pence’s and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 4%, as well as Scott’s 1%.
For Francis Macon University politics professor David White, Haley should “never” be underestimated, describing Scott as “a nice guy” but noting that may not be of use “until the mud-slinging starts.”
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“No one ever says they are running for VP, ever, but it would be a nice consolation prize for either of them,” he said.
