On Wednesday, Turkey shot back at Trump’s announcement of new tariffs by adding some tariffs of its own on U.S. imports. With tensions already running high, the latest round of tariffs and accusations further harms bilateral relations with Turkey, a U.S. ally and NATO member. Although the feud between the two countries might offer Trump short term political gains, in the long run, the spat between Washington and Ankara is against U.S. interests.
[Turkey: ‘Aggressive’ US sanctions over pastor will be returned in kind ‘without delay’]
To understand why requires a look at geography and a little history.
Turkey sits at the strategic crossroads of central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. It lies between Moscow and Tehran, and it occupies what could be prime territory for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. In short, Turkey’s location places it at the heart of many U.S. interests abroad.
This has been true since the Truman Doctrine of 1947.
After World War II, as the communist Iron Curtain rose across eastern Europe, Moscow eyed Turkey and Greece as well. Responding to the Soviet threat, the U.S. implemented the Truman Doctrine and pledged to keep Turkey out of the Kremlin’s hands.
Since then, Turkey has been a key ally. Beginning in 1954, Turkey has hosted Incirlik Air Base, which was a key U.S. military asset during the Cold War, the Gulf War and, more recently, the Iraq War. It was the base for U.S. Jupiter ballistic missiles until a secret agreement to dismantle them ended the Cuban missile crisis.
Although the USSR has since collapsed, it would be a mistake to fail to recognize the threat that Moscow continues to pose in the region, even without the communist rhetoric. Indeed, as recent events have made clear, Moscow’s interest and ability to influence and undermine foreign governments continues apace.
Today, Turkey continues to be an important partner. As the U.S. fights the Islamic State in Syria, works to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, head off Russian attempts to undermine western stability and counter China’s rise, Turkey remains at the center of U.S. interests.
But Turkey is an increasingly difficult partner. Turkey has been the on-and-off enemy of the Kurdish militias that make up the Syrian Democratic Forces and comprise a key part of the U.S. strategy against ISIS. Moreover, since the attempted coup of 2016, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consolidated his power and bent the country towards the authoritarianism. Indeed, it was in the crackdown after that coup that Turkey arrested and imprisoned of the U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson, who remains a hostage despite repeated calls from the Trump administration to release him.
Turkey finds itself ever-farther from Washington and ever-closer to Moscow. If that trajectory continues, the geopolitical shuffling would be a win for Putin and a loss for the U.S. Putin would gain the upper hand in the Middle East and jeopardize U.S. access to the region.
This is, of course, not to say that the U.S. should give Erdogan a pass. But we should exercise caution in how we negotiate our demands and prioritize long-term stability over short-term political gain.
Dividing the U.S. from its allies, like Turkey, has been a longstanding goal of Russia. With Turkey, those stakes are high, as the U.S. would lose a strategically positioned ally in a region where we could use more friends.
