Mitt Romney, who once hoped to establish himself as the GOP front-runner by winning in Iowa and New Hampshire, is desperately seeking a victory in the Michigan primary Tuesday in order keep his candidacy alive.
Without a victory in Michigan or at least a close-second finish, analysts said, the presidential bid of the former Massachusetts governor and millionaire could be fatally damaged.
“Every one of the candidates had a must-win state coming out of Iowa,” said Republican political strategist Dan Schnur, who worked on Sen. John McCain’s 2000 presidential bid. “For Romney, it’s Michigan.”
No one is more aware of this than Romney, who has dropped his campaign efforts in South Carolina and Florida to focus on Michigan.
Romney is campaigning nonstop and has saturated the airwaves with advertising that attempts to capitalize on his favorite-son status in the state, where he was raised and where his father served as governor four decades ago.
But poll numbers show John McCain, who won in New Hampshire, and Mike Huckabee, who won in Iowa, have stolen or at least greatly eroded Romney’s lead in the state. A Jan. 12 Mitchell Research poll gives McCain a one-point lead over Romney. A poll taken at the same time by the Detroit News puts Huckabee, once all but unknown in the state, only seven points behind Romney.
Romney’s Michigan campaign co-chairman, Rep. Peter Hoekstra, said Romney “really needs to do well in Michigan,” and a loss “would make things more difficult.”
But, he added, even without a Michigan victory Romney remains well-positioned to capture votes in other states.
University of Michigan political scientist Arthur Lupia also wonders whether winning Michigan is essential. “Romney has a special appeal out west in places that McCain and Huckabee won’t get any traction,” Lupia said.
The big question in Michigan is how many Democrats and independents will vote in the GOP primary, which is allowed under the state’s election rules. Both groups tend to favor McCain. Democrats may vote for him because their own party has stripped the state of convention delegates as a punishment for moving up the date of its primary.
“What Governor Romney wanted was to knock his opponents out in the first round, and that didn’t happen,” said his Michigan co-chairman, Craig DeRoche. “But this is going to be a long fight and he is in the best position to pick up votes and delegates as we go forward in a very fluid race.”
Schnur thinks a Michigan loss will cut that effort short.
“At a certain point, even a well-financed candidate would have to ask himself whether it made sense to continue,” Schnur said.
