U.S. policy toward Russia needs to become more competitive and more clearly articulated to bring it back into balance after being upended over the past year by events in Ukraine, according to scholars from the Army War College.
An April 14-15 wargaming exercise at the school also found that Washington should more effectively challenge Moscow in the competition for ideas and influence, and also take into account upcoming elections in both the U.S. and Russia, according to a report released Monday.
The report comes amid a new flurry of U.S. diplomacy to hold together a shaky truce in eastern Ukraine. In the past week, Secretary of State John Kerry and Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland have held talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials in a bid to prevent the “frozen conflict” from flaring up.
But Russia retains the strategic initiative it seized in March 2014, along with Ukraine’s Crimea, and U.S. policy remains reactive. Russian-backed rebels continue to advance in eastern Ukraine in violation of a February ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Moscow’s denial of involvement was directly challenged over the weekend with the display of two captured fighters that Kiev said were Russian soldiers.
The Army War College report notes the need for the United States and its NATO allies to reverse the momentum, while acknowledging it will be a difficult task.
“It is a bear of a policy problem,” said Andrew Kuchins, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who moderated a panel discussion with the report’s authors.
NATO officials have admitted that Russia’s sudden aggression in Eastern Europe, combined with its “hybrid” method of warfare that uses proxies, propaganda and intimidation tactics along with traditional military force, took them by surprise and gave Moscow the strategic initiative in spite of the crippling effects international sanctions have had on Russia’s economy.
The results of the wargame validated that concern, the report’s authors said.
“Russia was able to operate with quite a bit more strategic flexibility,” said Air Force Lt. Col. Christopher Lay.
“The Russian team played to win while the U.S. played not to lose,” added Lt. Col. Karen Briggman.
To reverse that, the report’s authors recommend that the United States clarify its position toward Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, in light of Russia’s new reality as a strategic competitor. This, despite the fact that there are areas of cooperation, such as the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran.
“Russia is blatantly attempting to change the rules and principles that have been the foundation of European security for decades. The challenge posed by a resurgent Russia is global, not regional, and enduring, not temporary,” Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO supreme allied commander in Europe, said in an April 30 news conference.
The report’s authors also recommended policymakers remain mindful not just of upcoming political events, but the need to constantly challenge Russia on the information battlefield.
In the past few years, Russian state media have vastly expanded its campaign of psychological and information warfare, which has become an integral part of the Kremlin’s military strategy, while also making it more difficult for Western media to operate.
In contrast, U.S. efforts have fallen behind and are mainly reactive, according to experts and lawmakers who have studied the issue.
“The West should not be hung up on just responding to distortion and lies,” said co-author James McNaughton.
