Fairfax County Executive Anthony Griffin warned Tuesday that the county may have to raise taxes to cope with a growing budget shortfall next year.
“In all candor, I’m going to have to put a number of things that were on the table last year back on the table this year,” Griffin said at a meeting of county and school leaders, including a potential 11-cent increase in the real estate tax rate and a vehicle registration fee that could bring the county about $27 million.
County officials are projecting a nearly $316 million deficit in fiscal 2011, which starts in July.
But school officials warned of more increases in class size, inevitable achievement declines and school closures unless county supervisors heed their plea for a favorable budget in fiscal 2011.
Additional cuts “will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, and barring a miracle you will not see student achievement continue [up], it will go [down],” school board member Brad Center told a meeting of school and county leadership.
“I want to make sure that we’re all clear — it’s not an if, it’s not a maybe, it’s an is,” Center said.
The school system, this year funded at about $2.2 billion, accounts for about 54 percent of the total county budget.
Schools Superintendent Jack Dale estimates a $179 million schools deficit in fiscal 2011 because of about $28 million in lost revenue and a list of budgetary increases, including more than $70 million to retirement contributions and more than $13 million if enrollment continues to grow.
Dale took issue, too, with County Executive Anthony Griffin’s assertion that the schools for years have been left mostly untouched as other county services have been chopped.
“The schools have not been held harmless,” Dale said. “The transfer was flat — the transfer was flat. On a per pupil basis, [funding] went negative” because of enrollment increases.
At risk next year are extra teachers and aides at schools with the largest populations of poor and limited-English students, Dale said. Other possibilities are an end to summer school, an end to full-day kindergarten, and school closures.
“Every school we close can save about $1 million,” Dale said.
