There is a growing refrain among Republicans warning against statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C.: Admission into the union guarantees more Democrats in Congress. Statehood for Puerto Rico, however, does not have nearly the same partisan prospects as statehood for Washington. The conflation of the two is a political miscalculation.
It’s true that if the capital ever became a state (unlikely in the near term, as it would require a Constitutional amendment), it would result in the election of two new Democratic senators and a corresponding number of liberal House members to Congress. However, despite the assumption of many Republicans, this would not be true for Puerto Rico. A brief study of the history of the territory reveals its makeup to be far more purple than blue.
This misconception is common among some Republicans. Idaho Sen. Jim Risch recently lumped Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico together by saying that if both are granted statehood, “Republicans will never be in the majority in the United States Senate.” Texas Sen. Ted Cruz told talk show host Hugh Hewitt that a victory for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and a Democratic Senate majority would open the door for statehood for the city and Puerto Rico, leading to, “in all likelihood, four new Democratic senators.” And Sen. Mitch McConnell’s former chief of staff Josh Holmes recently tweeted that statehood would bring “[four] more liberal Democratic Senators to the Senate.”
Polling and the party affiliation of elected officials in Puerto Rico contradict this misconception and instead show evidence of Republican popularity. In 2016, while only 4.1% of Washington, D.C., voters went for President Trump, Republican Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon won election as Puerto Rico’s nonvoting member of the House. Polling indicates that Puerto Rican voters tend to lean more conservative on social and economic issues.
The strongest proof is in the Republicans who Puerto Ricans are electing to office. In addition to Gonzalez-Colon, the Puerto Ricans recently elected Luis Fortuno as governor from 2009-13, Senate President Thomas Rivera Schatz, and House Speaker Carlos “Johnny” Mendez, to name a few. This stands in stark contrast to Washington, D.C., which has virtually no support for Republican officials.
Republicans also have political incentives to take the lead on the statehood issue. Trump must win Florida to retain the White House. Further, with the vice president serving as the tiebreaking vote in the Senate, control of the executive branch takes on even greater importance in what will be a closely contested Senate landscape come November. Therefore, the election in Florida may determine control of the Senate. Central Florida and its famous I-4 corridor make a barometer on how the state will swing and contain a large population of Puerto Rican voters who care about statehood.
A survey of Puerto Ricans residing in Florida found that although most of the respondents were registered to vote as Democrats, they overwhelmingly identified as conservative rather than liberal, 48% to 17%. These voters strongly support statehood and would reward Republican politicians who back that effort, according to recent polls. For example, a March 2019 Anzalone Liszt Grove survey found that 77% would support statehood “[i]f the U.S. Congress offered” it. Additional surveys by Equis in 2019 and voter surveys and consulting in 2017 also found that a majority supports statehood.
Prominent Florida Republicans such as Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Marco Rubio, and Sen. Rick Scott are all pro-statehood. This stance reflects that of the entire country: In July of last year, Gallup released poll results that show a majority have supported statehood since the 1960s. Two-thirds of Americans supported admitting Puerto Rico as a state in 2019. Add in the results from a 2017 referendum in Puerto Rico that showed massive support for statehood and it’s clear the idea is popular with a significant majority of Americans and citizens residing in Puerto Rico.
The Republican Party has made the mistake of discussing statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico in the same breath. But the history, demographics, and polling data demonstrate that Puerto Rico’s ideological and electoral future will be far different from that of the nation’s capital. If admitted, there is a good chance that the Puerto Rican resident commissioner, Senate majority leader, and speaker would all be leading candidates to represent the state of Puerto Rico in the U.S. Senate — as Republicans. The party that champions statehood for the territory will be rewarded at the ballot box.
Cesar Conda, a former chief of staff for Sen. Marco Rubio, is a principal at Navigators Global.
