They’re not showing up in Nevada — at least not yet:
Analysts have predicted that new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters will turn out in record numbers in this election. But as Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going. While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn’t vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters… Traditionally, older people, whites and people who vote consistently tend to turn out at the highest rates overall, said David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV. But this year, much has been made of the idea that the youth vote, the Hispanic vote and first-time voters would turn out at unprecedented rates, galvanized by a heightened political climate and the candidacy of Democratic nominee Barack Obama. “I would have expected those numbers to be a little higher,” Damore said. “At the same time, the people who come out for early voting may tend to be the tried and true.”
It seems they’re not showing up in Florida yet, either:
Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early… But party breakdowns for turnout aren’t the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted. And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
By way of comparison, there were a total of about 7.5 million votes cast in Florida in 2004 for the two major party presidential candidates. If these exit polls are correct, then McCain currently has a lead of about 400,000 votes after one-third of all Floridians have cast their ballots, and with about 325,000 of the votes so far unassigned. If McCain is already winning Florida by 400,000 votes, with a third of the eligible voters having cast their ballots, Barack Obama is going to have a hard time winning the state.
