Today, Republicans in 10 states will register their preference for who they want to be their party’s nominee in 2012. It is expected to be a big night for Mitt Romney, but here are five things to watch for as results roll in tonight:
1. How many delegates will Romney win in Ohio? As recently as two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports had Rick Santorum up 18 points on Romney. Yesterday, Rasmussen had Santorum up by only one. Other polls, including Quinnipiac, have Romney in the lead by as many as four points. Momentum is on Romney’s side. Fifteen of Ohio’s 66 delegates will be awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote, with a 20 percent threshold. Newt Gingrich is currently running behind that. Romney will probably get eight of these delegates. The rest of the delegates, except for the three automatic ones, are awarded on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. Santorum, however, failed to identify a full slate of delegates in some districts where he is likely to have the strongest support. Thus, he could lose as many as 18 possible delegates. But those delegates won’t automatically go to Romney because any candidate can petition the state to claim them. Which means they will probably end up being Romney delegates, just not tonight.
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2. Can Santorum reach 20 percent in Georgia? Like Ohio, almost half (31 out of 76) of Georgia’s delegates are awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote with a 20 percent threshold. Santorum is dangerously close to missing that threshold. With Gingrich running far ahead, and Romney performing well in some of Atlanta’s more prosperous suburbs, Santorum could end up shut out of Georgia entirely.
3. Can Romney win Tennessee? The trend towards Romney in Tennessee is just as strong as it is in Ohio, but Romney may have had too much ground to make up in too little time. A Middle Tennessee State poll had Santorum up by 21 points two weeks ago and now three new polls this week have Romney within five points. Gingrich also appears to be gaining in Tennessee and looks likely to beat the 20 percent threshold needed for some of the 28 delegates Tennessee awards based on proportional statewide vote. Twenty-seven of Tennessee’s 58 other delegates will be awarded by proportionately by congressional district.
4. Will Ron Paul win a state? Ron Paul has finished a strong second a number of times, including most recently in Washington, but he still does not have a state in the win column. His best chance for that tonight will be in the North Dakota caucuses where he was the only candidate to campaign this week. Alaska is also a strong Paul opportunity.
5. Will Romney win a majority of the states? Romney is a sure-winner in Idaho (strong Mormon population), Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia (only Romney and Paul are on the ballot). He only needs two more states to claim six out of the ten contests. And if he can limit Gingrich and Santorum to wins in Georgia and Oklahoma, it’ll be a great night for Romney.
Around the Bigs
Bloomberg, Boom-Era Property Speculators to Get Foreclosure Aid: The Obama administration will extend mortgage assistance for the first time to investors who bought multiple homes before the market imploded, helping some speculators who drove up prices and inflated the housing bubble.
The Washington Post, Holder: U.S. can lawfully target American citizens: The U.S. government has the right to order the killing of American citizens overseas if they are senior al-Qaeda leaders who pose an imminent terrorist threat and cannot reasonably be captured, Attorney General Eric Holder said Monday.
The Los Angeles Times, Teachers union leads in record year of lobbying lawmakers: The California Teachers Assn. spent more money on lobbying, $6.5 million, than any other special interest in California last year.
The Wall Street Journal, Russia Detains Hundreds of Protesters: Riot police detained hundreds of opposition protesters in the Russian capital and St. Petersburg on Monday after activists contesting Vladimir Putin’s election as president tried to occupy a Moscow square in a bid to force his ouster.
The New York Times, Obama Presses Netanyahu to Resist Strikes on Iran: At the White House Monday, Obama urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to use military action against Iran’s nuclear program.
Righty Playbook
AEI‘s James Pethokoukis reviews a new report showing that the 99 percent are not benefiting from the Obama recovery.
RedState‘s Erick Erickson urges readers to call their congressmen and tell them to vote against reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank.
At The Corner, Jonathan Collegio reminds us that Big Labor will be the biggest “outside group” in this year’s election.
Lefty Playbook
ThinkProgress is trying to tie Mitt Romney to Rush Limbaugh through the Bain Capital purchase of Clear Channel.
Talking Points Memo‘s Sahil Kapur reports that Obama will fight Republicans on gas prices by pushing for higher taxes on oil companies.
Mother Jones‘ Adam Sewer explains when the United States government can kill you.
