Iowa’s crucial Senate race could be decided long before Election Day and with it the balance of power in the Senate.
Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst are competing aggressively for early voters, and both sides think they have the advantage this year.
In Iowa, the Democrats have been at this longer, and they’re better at it. Unlike the Republicans, Democratic officials and party activists have years of experience in targeting sympathetic voters and hounding them to complete their ballots and turn them in before Election Day. That’s why Democrats express confidence in Braley’s prospects, even though he has consistently trailed Ernst in all public polls released since late September.
Democrats concede that Republicans are fighting harder this election. But they said early vote numbers among Democrats less likely to vote in a midterm, versus a presidential election, are significantly higher than 2010. So far, 30 percent of registered Democrats to request ballots did not vote in the last midterm. Democrats also are happy with their performance among independents; 45 percent have requested ballots and Democrats predict that 65 percent of them are Braley voters.
“We’re expanding the electorate,” Iowa Democratic Party spokeswoman Christina Freundlich said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “We’re not spending a lot of time making sure that our reliable Democrats vote early, because we know they’re going to do it anyway.”
Iowa Republicans acknowledge the Democrats’ historical advantage among early voters and admit that their opponents left the starting gate faster in the Senate contest. Absentee voting, available via U.S. mail and in-person drop-off, began in Iowa on Sept. 25. But that’s as much ground as the Republicans are willing to give, and they offered a raft of statistics to show just how far they’ve come, and how much Ernst has closed the gap with Braley, in early voting.
“The Dem talking points are that they are bringing new people into off-year elections and claim that they have a higher percentage of low scoring voters,” an Iowa Republican said. “The trend lines are running in the opposite direction. Their stuff is now attracting more previous 2010 absentee voters, while ours is continually growing the percentage of low scorers. We haven’t caught them yet but we’re well on our way.”
• As of Monday, the Republicans claim to have outpaced Democrats in absentee ballot requests for the previous 10 days. The Republicans say they led Democrats among in-person early voters during the same period, and recorded higher absentee ballot returns during the previous five days.
• Among the Republican absentee and early votes reported during the week of Oct. 5, 25 percent did not vote in the 2010 midterms, a historic GOP wave election.
• At the same point in 2010, Republicans trailed Democrats in absentee ballot requests by 25,939. As of Monday, that gap stood at 18,945. In 2010, the Democrats led among returned ballots by 22,396; the gap this year was 10,728.
• On Monday and Tuesday of this week, more GOP ballots were returned than Democratic ballots, giving Republicans a lead of 3,474 for the two-day period. Also on Monday, 18 percent of the total GOP requests were from Iowans who did not vote in 2010, doubling the Democratic total in that category for the day.
• As of Tuesday, counting all ballot returns, 45.04 percent were Democratic, 38.61 percent were Republican and 16.22 percent were unaffiliated. At this point in 2010, the Democrats had a lead of 54.69 percent to 30.1 percent, with no party at 15.11 percent.
These and other numbers have left Republicans encouraged that Ernst will defeat Braley by the time all of the votes are counted on Nov. 4.
This week, two more polls showed Ernst in the lead. In a USA Today/Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters conducted Saturday to Tuesday, Ernst topped Braley 47 percent to 43 percent. The poll had an error margin of 4.4 percentage points. In a Quinnipiac University poll of 967 likely voters, conducted Oct. 8-13, Ernst led the congressman 47 percent to 45 percent. The survey had an error margin of 3.2 points.
In the USA Today/Suffolk survey, Ernst led big among independent voters, holding a 48 percent to 32 percent advantage. In the Quinnipiac polls, Braley was in front among independents, holding a 48 percent to 43 percent lead. The RealClearPolitics.com average of all recent Iowa Senate polls showed a razor-thin contest, with Ernst in front of Braley by 1.6 percentage points, 45.6 percent to 44 percent.
