The Republican National Convention spent four days trying to reassure voters that a second term for President Trump is a decent and moral choice, whatever their misgivings about his temperament, tweets, and personal tendencies.
Trump’s likelihood of winning a second term will depend, in part, on whether the convention not only succeeded in rallying a conservative base that has remained loyal to the president for four years, but also whether suburban voters end their exodus from the GOP. The programming sought to portray Trump as a defender of every person, not just the rich, white, and powerful.
Each night, Trump was shown helping ordinary people. He celebrated pardons and commutations, not of his political allies but of offenders who had turned their lives around. An immigration hawk who vowed to control the country’s borders, he presided over a naturalization ceremony for legal immigrants. Hammered for the coronavirus death toll in America, he met with first responders and medical professionals risking their health to combat the pandemic. Whatever the propriety of using the White House in this fashion, each act was intended to smooth over Trump’s rougher edges.
“I have done more in three years for the black community than Joe Biden has done in 47 years — and when I’m reelected, the best is yet to come!” Trump declared. Prominent female speakers defended Trump as a leader who empowers women. “Last year, 70% of all new jobs were secured by women,” said Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and senior adviser. “For decades, he has elevated women to senior positions in business and in government,” said counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway. “He confides in and consults us, respects our opinions, and insists that we are on equal footing with the men.”
“I think as many of the women who work with the president day in and day out — and I’m one of them — we really want to show the American people the President Trump we see,” Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told Fox News.
The message of most speakers was that Trump is not as “nasty” as you think, but to the extent that he is coarse and combative, it is to the benefit of the American people. “I urge you to make your judgment based on results and not rhetoric,” said presidential daughter Tiffany Trump. “No matter the amount of negative or false media headlines or attacks from the other side, Donald Trump has not and will not lose focus on you,” said Melania Trump. “He loves this country, and he knows how to get things done.”
“It has seemed very base-focused, and based on the Nielsen overnights and network breakout of who is actually watching, with Fox being in the lead substantially, I think that’s honestly the best use of a virtual convention in the current political environment,” said Republican strategist Nicholas Everhart. “Inspire, fire up, and consolidate the base, so pre- and post-Labor Day on, you can focus on winning over the voter groups you need in the target states with an assured, fired-up base in your back pocket.”
“Against the predictions of many, this convention has been well produced and has successfully driven a message,” said Christian Ferry, deputy campaign manager for John McCain in 2008. “The question, however, is whether that message, which, in many ways, is counter to what we’ve seen from the White House over the last four years, is at all believable to anyone who is not already a supporter.” Ferry is among the McCain alumni who has endorsed Biden for president.
Republican operatives who support the president expressed optimism that the convention’s messaging will succeed in turning out the base while also attracting swing voters in the battleground states that will decide the election. But they did not downplay Biden’s poll lead and the significance of national events from the pandemic to the economic downturn and civil unrest, all of which have made persuasion difficult.
“The issue of crime is definitely rising as a public concern at the very moment Trump’s ratings began to fall. The problem with Trump’s message is that he’s promoting ‘law and order’ to a population who wants ‘public safety,’” said veteran Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. “By using the wrong verbiage, he’s not getting the support he otherwise would be generating. Law and order is police hitting protesters with clubs. Public safety is safe streets and safe neighborhoods. There is a definite difference.”
Despite middling ratings, the Trump campaign is confident it offered a favorable contrast with Biden. It sought to “change the media’s perception of who a Trump supporter is, what a Trump supporter believes, and how they are hopeful for the future of the country if President Trump is elected to a second term,” said communications director Tim Murtaugh.
