NBC News reports that President Trump is considering expelling the U.S. resident and Turkish dissident, Fethullah Gulen, in return for Turkey reducing its pressure on Saudi Arabia over the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi.
But what’s really going on here is that the U.S. wants Turkey to avoid directly accusing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of ordering Khashoggi’s killing. As I noted last month, Erdogan has dangled the prospect of blaming the crown prince. This allows the Turkish president to blackmail the Saudis. But why is the U.S. so concerned with him being blamed?
Well, because that would greatly complicate the Trump administration’s Saudi strategy. Were the crown prince credibly identified as responsible for Khashoggi’s death, President Trump would face massive pressure to alter his relationship with Riyadh. Both the U.S. and the Saudi government recognize as much, which is why on Thursday the U.S. Treasury department and Saudi prosecutors tried to shift blame away from the crown prince to other senior Saudi officials. While this blame-shifting is absurd, it reflects the sad fact that Khashoggi ultimately doesn’t matter that much in the broader schedule of U.S.-Saudi interests.
Nevertheless, Trump would be making a terrible mistake were he to expel Gulen to a third party such as South Africa. This would risk Gulen’s rendition by Turkish intelligence officers or his extradition to Turkey under a foreign court order. It would be the equivalent of the U.S. throwing Gulen off the bridge in order to cover-up a murder. Such an action would be utterly at odds with America’s moral leadership and the rule of law.
Trump should rethink his tactics here. Rather than playing Erdogan’s game, the administration should recognize that Turkey has growing reason to rebuild its relationship with America. And with that in mind, Trump should make a statement clarifying that Gulen will be allowed to remain in the U.S. as long as there remains no compelling evidence to support his extradition.
