In a November match-up against Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton’s path to the White House may not be as easy as has been suggested.
She and Trump are in a dead heat for swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, according to Quinippiac polls released Tuesday. “It’s too soon to say Trump will win. But it is not too soon to say that he can win,” write Dick Morris and Eileen McGann for Creators in a poll analysis.
Morris and McGann offer multiple ways for Trump to win, including youth support. November’s “likely result is that young voters will revert to their traditional pattern of sitting out the coming election,” they wrote. As they explain:
Tuesday’s polls reflect a millennial preference for Hillary over Trump. But voters over 65 prefer Trump. That is the demographic that actually votes, as already evidenced from the primaries.
Bernie Sanders is losing despite winning young voters with overwhelming margins. Hillary Clinton has succeeded because, despite her heavy loss with young voters, she wins with older ones in the primary.
Morris and McGann also predict that black voter turnout will return to pre-2008 norms, which could cost the Democrats 2.5 million votes. They expect about 10 million new white voters — 6 million of them breaking for Trump —which would cost the Democrats 2 million votes. Combined with the 500,000 young voters, “you have completely erased Obama’s 2012 margin over Romney.”
The authors present other differences. Trump “can always trim his positions, moderate his rhetoric, smooth his edges and appear more acceptable and presidential,” they point out. Yet, “what is Clinton to do with the facts of her background?”
Morris and McGann are not the only ones to mention this path to the White House. Earlier this month, E.J. Dionne of The Washington Post suggested Trump could win “with young voters not voting in the same numbers, in the numbers Hillary needs.”
Hillary is leading with young people in swing states. She might be particularly vulnerable if they don’t turn out to vote for her, though, as Professor Carlos L. Yordan noted in March.
