THE SUFFERING THAT IS SYRIA: So after five years of brutal civil war, and hundreds of thousands of deaths, mostly civilians, it has come to this. Thanks to the intervention and military support from Russia, Bashar Assad’s grip on power appears tighter than ever. The rebellion, if not crushed, has been dealt a serious setback, and much of Aleppo has been reduced to a moonscape of misery, amid allegations of mass atrocities perpetrated by the Syrian government forces as they took control of what was once Syria’s largest city.
All of Secretary of State John Kerry’s earnest efforts to broker a cease-fire, and forge some sort of path to peace, have been fruitless. All that’s left for diplomacy at the moment is to try to make an arrangement for thousands of civilians and the remnants of the rebels to leave the fallen city, something that was being negotiated, not by the U.S. but by Turkey and Russia. So far the planned evacuation that was supposed to begin today has not happened. At the State Department Tuesday, spokesman John Kirby was reduced to expressing outrage and railing against Russian perfidy. “We’re seeing now reports of people being executed in the streets, just killed because they’re there. And that’s despicable. And again, we have long said that the bloodshed in Aleppo needs to stop, that the brutality of the regime and the support that it’s getting from Russia and Iran has got to stop.”
While the rebels’ dreams of taking Damascus and toppling Assad have been dashed, they still control large parts of northwestern Syria, as well as pockets around Damascus and Homs, and some areas of the south. “Even if it is the end of the siege in Aleppo, it is not the end of the war in Syria,” Kirby said. “The opposition will continue to fight. Extremists will be continued to be drawn to the vacuum that continues to exist in so many places in Syria. And people, innocent people, many of them children, will be flung into refuge.”
WHAT WILL TRUMP DO? As Syria goes down as one of President Obama’s biggest foreign policy failures, from the red line that wasn’t, to the decision not to takes sides in the civil war, not to allow safe zones to protect civilians from Assad’s barrel bombs of chlorine gas, to allowing Russia to establish a foothold in the Middle East, the question becomes: How will President Trump handle the mess he has inherited? Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham, two of Obama’s sharpest critics on Syria, blame the tragedy on a total lack of American leadership. “Having consolidated its power in Aleppo and paid no price for its war crimes, the Assad regime will use the ceasefire to reset its war machine and prepare to slaughter its way to victory across the rest of the country, which will undermine U.S. national security interests and increase the risk to U.S. troops serving in Syria.” But in a speech in Cincinnati, Dec 1. Trump seemed to signal he will not join Obama’s futile call for Assad to go. “We will pursue a new foreign policy that finally learns from the mistakes of the past. We will stop looking to topple regimes and overthrow governments, folks. Remember, $6 trillion — $6 trillion in the Middle East. $6 trillion,” Trump said. “Our goal is stability, not chaos, because we want to rebuild our country, it’s time — it’s time.” And when the applause died down, he went on to again hint he’s ready to form an alliance with Russia. “We will partner with any nation that is willing to join us in the effort to defeat ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism,” he said.
THE “FML” AND THE PHANTOM U.S. TROOPS TO SYRIA: Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced with some fanfare this week that 200 additional U.S. special operations forces will be dispatched to Syria to aid the loose coalition of U.S.-backed Syrian Arab and Kurdish fighters advancing on the Islamic State’s self-declared capital of Raqqa. Turns out that’s another case of Pentagon fuzzy math. What Carter actually did was increase the authorized Force Management Levels, from 300 to 503. But it will be some time, if ever, before that number of troops actually shows up in Syria. Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis conceded yesterday that the actual tally of the American special operators in Syria is only about 200 at the moment. So U.S. commanderS have tHE authority to bring in more troops as needed, but for now they are still 100 or so under the old cap.
WHO LOST PALMYRA? Davis also blames the Russians and the Assad regime for handing the Islamic State a rare victory, by failing to defend the historic and symbolically important Syrian city of Palmyra. The Syrian news agency SANA reported two days ago that over 4,000 ISIS fighters surprised and overwhelmed Syrian forces who had liberated the ancient city in March. Davis implied the loss resulted from Syria and Russia taking their eye off the ball. “I think there could certainly be an argument made that the regime, which is backed by Russia, had been so singly focused on Aleppo, that they failed to watch their six,” Davis said. “This was a very important territorial gain they made from ISIL.”
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SECRETARY OF NUKES: The Trump transition folks announced this morning that Rick Perry will be Trump’s nominee for secretary of energy. “As the Governor of Texas, Rick Perry created created a business climate that produced millions of new jobs and lower energy prices in his state, and he will bring that same approach to our entire country as Secretary of Energy,” Trump said in a statement. If confirmed Perry would not only head the department he proposed eliminating in 2012, it would also put the former Texas governor in charge of the maintaining America’s stockpile of nuclear weapons as well as cleaning up nuclear waste. While the Energy Department is involved in research into renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions, most of the department’s $29.6 billion budget goes to nukes. A report in the Daily Beast notes that Perry lacks the pedigree and technical expertise of some of his predecessors. “President Bush appointed Samuel Bodman, who had a distinguished career as an MIT-trained chemical engineer before making a fortune in the private sector,” notes the article. “President Obama upped the ante, appointing Berkeley’s Steven Chu and MIT’s Ernest Moniz to the position. Both are physicists. Chu has a Nobel Prize. By contrast, Perry took four chemistry courses and got two Cs, a D and an F. He got a C in physics.” The report includes a link to Perry’s lackluster college transcript from Texas A&M University.
TILLERSON’S POSSIBLE END RUN: As we noted yesterday, because the Republicans have a bare, one-seat majority in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a single GOP dissenter could try to block the nomination Trump’s pick to lead the State Department. Yesterday, Sen. Marco Rubio raised “serious concerns” about Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson. But a GOP aide insists, if necessary, Sen. Mitch McConnell could use his procedural powers as majority leader to get Tillerson a vote on the Senate floor, even if the committee fails to approve him. “Mitch McConnell could still bring that nominee before the Senate,” a senior Senate Republican aide told Joel Gehrke.
Tillerson’s past business dealings with Russia, and his close relationship with President Vladimir Putin, continues to draw fire from critics on Capitol Hill, in particular Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi. But Tillerson has some heavyweight support in his corner, including from the highly-respected former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who according to reports was the person who first suggested Tillerson to Trump when the president-elect was dissatisfied with the choices he was facing. Jason Miller, a Trump spokesman, insists Tillerson has experience negotiating with countries such as Russia and will be willing to tell Putin “no.”
NO TRUMP DUNFORD MEETING YET: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford has no plans to meet with Trump in the comings days, contrary to a report. “There’s nothing on his calendar,” said Navy Capt. Greg Hicks, a spokesman for the chairman. CNN, quoting a senior military official, reported Dunford was expected to travel to New York to meet with the president-elect for a discussion on national security and military issues. Hicks denied the report adding, “He only works for one commander in chief at a time.”
DEGRADATION BY DRONE: The U.S. continues to whittle away at the leadership of the Islamic State, using the unblinking eye of drones to track and kill them whenever they are in the clear, away from civilians. In the case of the Dec. 4 strike in Raqqa, Syria three Islamic State leaders were all in the car, when it was destroyed by a Hellfire missile. Among the dead: Salah Gourmat and Sammy Djedou, who the Pentagon says were facilitators of the Nov. 13, 2015, terrorist attacks in Paris. The drone strike also killed Walid Hamman, who Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said was a suicide attack planner convicted in absentia in Belgium for a disrupted terror plot last year. Gourmat and Djedou were said to be close associates of Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the group’s external operations leader who was killed in an August airstrike.
MOSUL TIMELINE: Obama’s envoy to the coalition against the Islamic State said Tuesday that efforts to free the Iraqi city of Mosul from the terrorist group are on track, and indicated that the city could be liberated early next year, Pete Kasperowicz writes. “ISIL terrorists are now trapped in Mosul. They’re unable to resupply or replenish their dwindling ranks,” said special envoy Brett McGurk at a White House briefing Tuesday. “We’re often asked how long is this going to take. And the answer is, in Mosul, it’ll take as long as it takes,” he said. “I think it’s useful to remember other campaigns against ISIL … each of them took about six months. Some have gone faster.” The Pentagon yesterday said 15 to 20 percent of Mosul has been cleared of ISIS, and the slow progress is out of concern for the safety of the civilian population. We’ll get another update today from the top U.S. counter-ISIS commander Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, who will brief Pentagon reporters live from Baghdad at 11 a.m.
OSPREY CRASH: An MV-22 Osprey crash-landed in shallow water off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, Monday night local time, and all five crew members aboard were rescued, according to the Marine Corps. The crew members were being treated for injuries at the U.S. Naval Hospital at Camp Foster after they were airlifted by an HH-60G helicopter from the 33rd Rescue Squadron, the statement said.
FLYING BLIND: Obama urged Trump on Monday night to take as many security briefings as he can, no matter how smart he is, Meghana Kurup writes. “It doesn’t matter how smart you are,” Obama said on “The Daily Show.” “I think the president-elect may say one thing and do another once he’s here, because … it’s a big complicated world. You have to have the best information possible to make the best decisions possible. … If you are not getting their perspective, their detailed perspective then you are flying blind.”
SAUDI SALES HALTED: “The United States is terminating some sales of military arms to Saudi Arabia over concerns about the killing of civilians in Yemen by a Saudi-led coalition, a senior U.S. official said Tuesday, while ramping up support for Saudi’s border defenses and other intelligence-sharing,” the Associated Press reported.
“The decision to pull back planned sales of precision-guided munitions stems from a review ordered by the White House in October following the bombing of a funeral hall in Yemen that killed more than 140 people, thrusting longstanding concerns about civilian casualties into the spotlight. Human rights groups have said the Saudis have targeted houses, hospitals and schools, and have pressured the U.S. to withdraw support for the Saudi coalition, which is fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.”
A QUESTION OF MOTIVE: Figuring out what Russian hackers did is one thing, but determining why they did is another all together. America’s top spy isn’t embracing the CIA’s assessment that the Russian government was trying to help Trump get elected by hacking into Democratic offices. Reuters reports that while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence isn’t disputing the Russians are responsible for hacking the Democratic National Committee and top Hillary Clinton campaign officials, it doesn’t necessarily agree on the motivation. “ODNI is not arguing that the agency (CIA) is wrong, only that they can’t prove intent,” said one of three U.S. officials who spoke to Reuters. “Of course they can’t, absent agents in on the decision-making in Moscow.”
TANK EQUIPMENT TO KUWAIT: The U.S. approved the possible sale of $1.7 billion worth of equipment to recapitalize 218 M1A2 tanks for Kuwait, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced on Tuesday. The possible sale includes .50-caliber machine guns, M240 machine guns, radios and night-vision goggles. The principal contractors are General Dynamics Land Systems, Joint Services Manufacturing Center, Kongsberg Defence Systems, Raytheon, Meggitt Defense Systems, Palomar, Northrop Grumman, DRS Technologies, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell and Miltope.
NEW D.C. DIGS: Next month, senior leaders and staff with Boeing Defense will move their headquarters from St. Louis to Washington, D.C., according to a spokesman. The move will initially involve only about a dozen people, spokesman Todd Blecher said, adding that the company’s 14,000 employees will remain in St. Louis. He said the move has been in the works for months, and isn’t a response to Trump’s recent call to cancel the Air Force One program over cost.
THE RUNDOWN
Defense News: Trump’s Tech Meeting Could Have Major Impact on Pentagon
Breaking Defense: Keep Innovation Alive, SecArmy Fanning Implores Trump
Politico: Is Trump’s Twitter account a national security threat?
Wall Street Journal: Europe Hopeful Trump Will Stick With Iran Nuclear Deal
The Hill: Iran to build nuclear-powered vessels in response to US ‘violation’
Task and Purpose: Trump Makes Time For Kanye West, But Not Veterans Groups
Breaking Defense: Mr. Trump: We Need F-35s Built Faster, Not Fewer
USNI News: Raytheon Excalibur Round Set to Replace LRLAP on Zumwalts
New York Times: The Perfect Weapon: How Russian Cyberpower Invaded the U.S.
Associated Press: Islamic State turned Mosul into city of terror and darkness
CNN: Goodbye messages from Aleppo
Stars and Stripes: A pardon for Bowe Bergdahl? Unlikely, experts say
Army Times: Congressman joins push to secure presidential pardon for imprisoned Army lieutenant
Marine Corps Times: Parris Island hazing scandal: Three Marines face court-martial
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 14
8:00 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukunft speaks at a Navy League breakfast event that is closed to press. navyleague.org
9 a.m. 1331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Center for a New American Security releases a new report titled, “Future Foundry: A New Strategic Approach for Military-Technical Advantage.” cnas.org
9 a.m. 1800 M Street NW Foundation for Defense of Democracies hosts policy discussion on Iran. Michael Doran of the Hudson Institute; Suzanne Maloney of Brookings; Prof. Steve Simon of Amherst College; FDD’s Reuel Marc Gerecht; and FDD’s President Clifford May. The event will be livestreamed.
9:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Hamdullah Mohib, the Afghanistan ambassador to the U.S., delivers the keynote at an event focused on American strategy in Afghanistan under President-elect Trump. heritage.org
9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy, Arlington, Va. Lt. Gen. William Bender, the Air Force’s chief information officer, will discuss information dominance in his service. Mitchellaerospacepower.org
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, briefs reporters on operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Live streamed on defense.gov.
6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Wall Street Journal reporter Jay Solomon discusses his new book, The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank Battles, and the Secret Deals That Reshaped the Middle East. press.org
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 15
10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Wilson Center hosts an event looking at what 2016 meant for relations between U.S. and China. wilsoncenter.org
4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Experts discuss what opportunities the next administration has in nuclear security. stimson.org
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 16
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Brookings Institution holds a panel discussion looking at U.S. and Japanese perspectives toward North Korea and its goals. brookings.edu
1 p.m. Livestream. The Council on Foreign Relations hosts United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. cfr.org
MONDAY | DECEMBER 19
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of think tank analysts talks about what Palestinians and Israelis expect from Trump’s administration. wilsoncenter.org
10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James delivers remarks at an Atlantic Council event titled “Capabilities, Reassurance & Presence: The US Air Force in Transatlantic Security.” atlanticcouncil.org
