Senate Republican leaders on the homeland security and intelligence committees — the key panels with cybersecurity jurisdiction — continue to face extremely tight races for re-election just less than three weeks before Election Day.
Based on independent analysis and recent polling, Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are in toss-up races, with Burr maintaining a slight lead in his campaign while Johnson appears to have closed to within a few points of his challenger after trailing by double-digit margins for months.
It’s unclear what if any impact the presidential race will have on these down-ballot, but high-profile, contests. Much of the independent analysis so far has shown surprisingly little spillover from the tumultuous Clinton-Trump battle into Senate races, but that could change quickly in the final stretch of the campaign.
For now, Johnson’s race against former Sen. Russell Feingold is rated as a toss-up that “tilts” toward the Democratic challenger, according to both the independent Cook Political Report and Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report.
But RealClearPolitics.com’s aggregation of recent polling shows Johnson significantly narrowing a double-digit deficit over the past month.
Feingold holds a 3 percentage point lead based on an aggregation of polling conducted in the first two weeks of October, RealClearPolitics.com has found.
The two candidates are frequently at odds over cybersecurity issues — Johnson strongly supported the Cybersecurity Act of 2015, for instance, which Feingold opposed on civil liberties grounds.
In North Carolina, the Cook report sees the race as a pure “toss-up” while Rothenberg-Gonzales sees a toss-up that “tilts” toward the Republican incumbent Burr.
The RealClearPolitics.com polling aggregation also shows that race getting closer this fall.
Burr’s lead, based on aggregated polling conducted through Oct. 15, stood at just 1.8 percentage points. The Republican appeared to be up by about five points last month.
Burr and Democratic nominee Deborah Ross held a televised debate on Oct. 13, touching on cybersecurity issues like Russian hacks and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state.
Ross is the former director of the North Carolina American Civil Liberties Union and appears to view cybersecurity policy issues in much the same way as does Feingold.
Burr, on the other hand, was a key architect of the 2015 cybersecurity law and has strongly advocated for the law enforcement and intelligence community positions in various cybersecurity policy disputes.
During their debate, Ross zeroed in on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s fitness to be commander-in-chief, pointing to Trump’s comments on Russian hacking and other issues. Burr is serving on Trump’s national security advisory council.
Burr returned the favor, criticizing Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state. Ross said the private server was inappropriate while largely defending Clinton on policy grounds.
Other Republicans on the Senate homeland security and intelligence committees also continue to face close races.
Among Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee members, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., holds a 2.3 percentage point lead, according to RealClearPolitics.com’s aggregation of polls.
But Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, holds a 15.5 percentage point lead, according to aggregated polls, while Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has a 16-point lead in his race. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is also comfortably ahead in his race.
Among Senate Intelligence Committee members, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., leads by 4.7 percentage points according to aggregated polling while Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., holds a 2.3 percentage point lead in his race.
Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., who serves on homeland security and intelligence, appears to be cruising to re-election in his race.
Polling in the coming days may reveal the dominant trend lines heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Charlie Mitchell is editor of InsideCybersecurity.com, an exclusive service covering cybersecurity policy from Inside Washington Publishers, and author of “Hacked: The Inside Story of America’s Struggle to Secure Cyberspace,” published by Rowman and Littlefield.
