Joe Biden appears to have hit a ceiling of support in polling for the Democratic presidential nomination, at least for this stage of the race.
To be sure, Biden still finds himself well ahead of the rest of the crowded 2020 Democratic field. But after an initial bump in polling following his formal entrance into the race, his support has tapered off slightly and seems to be settling in as the rest of the candidates jockey for position behind him.
Specifically, Biden stood at about 29% in the RealClearPolitics average in late April, just as he declared his candidacy. In the weeks that followed, his numbers soared to over 40%. But Biden started to retreat in polls conducted in second half of May, and he now finds himself in the mid-30s, essentially somewhere between his pre-announcement polling and his post-announcement peak.
This is still an impressive number in a field with over 20 candidates, especially given that Sen. Bernie Sanders, his next closest rival, is about 20 points behind. By way of comparison, it wasn’t until December of 2015 that Donald Trump was polling as high in the Republican primary as Biden is now.
Biden has managed to endure the first wave of critical stories that followed his entrance into the race, and with the first Democratic debate taking place later this month, it’s hard to see his basic standing in the field changing much in the coming weeks.
As the debates start to ramp up, the requirements for participation in the debates get stricter, and candidates start to face obvious monetary challenges, the field will naturally consolidate. The main questions at that point will be whether those opposed to a Biden candidacy start to coalesce around an alternative, and to what extent Biden gains support as candidates drop out or fade away.
Many analysts assumed in 2016 that Trump had a clear ceiling, and would be overtaken by other candidates as the field narrowed. In reality, conservatives who opposed Trump remained divided on an alternative, and he kept gaining support as other candidates dropped out.
