SYRIA DEAL PITS PENTAGON AGAINST STATE: It didn’t take a lot of reading between the lines to see that the U.S. military hasn’t softened its resistance to working side-by-side with the Russians in Syria. The cessation of hostilities agreement negotiated between Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week is getting a chilly reception at the Pentagon. Pressed for details of how the joint air operations would work, the three-star in charge of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian pushed back, saying those details would have to be worked out. “That is, if we get that far.”
The idea is that if the cease-fire holds for seven straight days, the U.S. and Russia would go forward with a plan to create a Joint Integration Center in Jordan to coordinate strikes against ISIS and the former Nusra front, now called Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. “It would be premature to say we’re going to jump right into it,” Harrigan said, hinting at the the deep skepticism about the deal within the Pentagon. “I’m not saying yes or no. I’m saying we’ve got work to do to understand what that plan is going to look like.” One military officer grumbled that the Kerry deal’s definition of “cessation of hostilities” had “enough holes to drive truck through it.” The New York Times reports that on a conference call with the White House last week, Defense Secretary Ash Carter opposed the plan to jointly target terrorist groups.
In an interview with NPR this morning, Kerry argued that with the option of sending U.S. troops to Syria off the table, he had no better option. “What’s the alternative? The alternative is to allow us to go from 450,000 people who’ve been slaughtered to how many thousands more?” he told NPR. Kerry said President Obama is behind the plan, so the military will be behind it, too.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
Want to learn more about Daily on Defense? See our introductory video here.
IT’S A SECRET: Meanwhile the specifics of the Syria agreement won’t be released by the State Department, a spokesman said yesterday. Pete Kasperowicz writes: “There’s a lot of would-be spoilers out there who want to bring this deal and take it apart and make it fail,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s still our assessment that we don’t want to share this thing publicly, but that assessment is ongoing.”
Toner also said he couldn’t rule out the possibility that the Iran nuclear deal will embolden the regime. “Iran, like many countries, has an internal political process that’s defined by a lot of different dynamics, but I can’t give an assessment in that regard one way or the other.”
Toner admitted the U.S. has seen some “disturbing” trends with Iran, such as increased harassment of U.S. military assets in the region. But Toner said that makes the nuclear agreement all the more valuable, since Iran is at least not able to become more aggressive at the same time it pursues nuclear weapons.
KICK ME: It’s not just Iran that’s stepped up harassment of U.S. military ships and planes around the world. Experts says what the Pentagon defends as “admirable restraint” in response to “unprofessional” confrontations in the air on on the sea by Russia and China are part of a pattern of escalating confrontations that are making the U.S. look weak. Some experts argue the U.S. needs to draw a clear line, and then act if Iran or someone else crosses it, while others says a dispute resolution regime needs to be established with foreign capitals to de-escalate the confrontations.
NOT SO FAST: Sen. John McCain said Tuesday he will block the administration from separating the dual-hatted head of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency into two roles by blocking the nomination of someone to take over just one of the roles. “If a decision is prematurely made to separate NSA and Cyber Command, I will object to the confirmation of any individual nominated by the president to replace the director of the National Security Administration if that person is not also nominated to be the commander of Cyber Command,” McCain said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.
While traveling in California, Carter said no decision has been made when asked about the move to split the four-star position into two roles. “Of course, ultimately, whenever that decision is made, it will be made by the president, because, both NSA and CYBERCOM ultimately report to the president. They’re part of the Department of Defense, but that’s a decision that only the president can take.”
NDAA UPDATE: Conferees are still negotiating the final bill, but one Democratic senator isn’t holding his breath for the final version. Sen. Ben Cardin said it’s not likely lawmakers will finish a compromise bill before the election.
GITMO VETO THREAT: The White House has issued a formal threat to veto a bill that would halt all transfers out of Guantanamo Bay that the House is considering. Introduced by Rep. Jackie Walorski, the bill would prohibit any prisoner transfers until either Jan. 1 or the National Defense Authorization Act becomes law, whichever comes first, effectively ending any hope the president has of closing Guantanamo Bay before his presidency ends in January.
LESSONS LEARNED: John Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, will release a report at 10 a.m. today on lessons learned about handling corruption in Afghanistan. The findings — the first in a series of planned reports from SIGAR — will ensure that future rebuilding efforts avoiding making the same mistakes as the U.S. made in Afghanistan.
TRUMP WIN COULD HELP GD, HURT LOCKHEED: A Donald Trump administration could be beneficial to large and mid-size defense contractors, according to a report from Byron Callan at Capital Alpha Partners. His reasoning: a Trump White House means a GOP-controlled House and Senate, which means the end of sequestration and beginning of higher defense spending. Trump’s call for a larger Navy could also benefit the traditional shipbuilders, like Huntington Ingalls and General Dynamics, Callan writes. But some of his remarks could hurt the U.S. defense export business and negatively impact companies like Lockheed Martin or Raytheon.
“Trump’s criticism of Janet Yellen and low interest rates and the possibility of higher inflation in a fiscally-expansive era may spawn USD strength that could make U.S. defense exports less affordable. Trump’s calls for allies to shoulder a greater portion of their own burden, his seeming-admiration of Russia’s Putin, and possible means-testing to honor defense treaty commitments may yet spawn changes in allied defense spending plans,” Callan wrote.
HACKING THE POLLS: If Russia or someone else wants to hack into the nation’s polling sites on Election Day, they’ll have a heck of a time, experts told the House Science Committee yesterday. That’s because state-level sites are a patchwork, with no central mainframe to hack, Rudy Takala writes. “Are we concerned about potential interference into our election process? We absolutely are, but voter fraud is much harder to accomplish than you think,” Louisiana Secretary of State Tom Schedler told the committee. “We have some 10,000 jurisdictions of voting in this country, hundreds of thousands of voting machines in various locations. The complexity of our election system has reinforced the election process.”
Adm. Mike Rogers, the man in charge of Cyber Command and the NSA, also said that Russians hacking into the U.S. electoral system is definitely a concern of his, but the fact that states have their own systems actually provides some defense.
Remember the Pentagon’s bug bounty program? Rogers also said we should expect to see the next iteration of that hacking program to expose and patch DoD cyber vulnerabilities before bad actors find them in the coming months.
KIM JONG-UNIMPRESSED: The show of force over South Korea yesterday, in which the U.S. sent a pair of B-1B non-nuclear bombers over Osan Air Base, was dismissed by the North as a “bluff.” A statement carried on North Korea’s state-run news agency said, “They are bluffing that B-1Bs are enough for fighting an all-out nuclear war… These extremely reckless provocations of the U.S. imperialist warmongers are pushing the situation on the Korean peninsula to the point of explosion hour by hour.” The U.S. supersonic long-range bombers returned to their base in Guam after being joined in the flyover by Japanese and South Korean fighter planes. Meanwhile Reuters reports North Korea will have enough material for about 20 nuclear bombs by the end of this year, citing new assessments by weapons experts.
CIVILIANS KILLED: U.S. Central Command announced last night that it’s investigating three separate coalition airstrikes in Syria that may have resulted in unintended civilian casualties. A CENTCOM statement said strikes on Sept. 7, 10 and 12 may have unintentionally resulted in the deaths of innocent civilians, but did not disclose how many people may have been killed.
THE RUNDOWN
Defense News: Boeing Unveils T-X Advanced Trainer Aircraft
USNI News: Video: Successful F-35, SM-6 Live Fire Test Points to Expansion in Networked Naval Warfare
CNN: Pentagon mulls sending more troops to fight ISIS in Iraq
Breaking Defense: Fear Of Russia Drives Sweden Closer To NATO
Military.com: Iran Unveils New Helicopter-Carrying Catamaran Ship
Military.com: ‘Tactical Miscalculation’ Likely if Iran Boat Harassment Persists: CNO
Military Times: Advocates, lawmakers push for answers to problem of ‘bad paper’ discharges
Reuters: Democratic Party says it was hacked again, blames Russians
Reuters: Pardon for former NSA contractor Snowden seen as unlikely
Military Times: The military is reviewing 1,357 combat awards for Iraq, Afghanistan heroics
Associated Press: Syria ceasefire deal rife with legal, liability questions
Military Times: Chelsea Manning to undergo sex reassignment surgery
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 14
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. The House Foreign Affairs Committee marks up a bill that would prohibit future “ransom” payments to Iran. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Cannon 311. The House Homeland Security Committee holds a hearing looking at the Department of Homeland Security’s ability to track and stop foreign fighters trying to enter the U.S. homeland.house.gov
11 a.m. Fort Belvoir, Virginia. Army Secretary Eric Fanning and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley provide remarks at the National Museum of the Army.
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Amber Smith, a former Army helicopter pilot, speaks at the Heritage Foundation about her new book on her service in Iraq and Afghanistan. Heritage.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. A panel of think tank experts testifies on about radicalization and the rise of terrorism in the United States. Oversight.house.gov
2:15 p.m. SD-419, Dirksen. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Michael Carpenter provides testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on examining the accession of Montenegro into NATO
3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. Four Air Force generals testify before the House Armed Services Committee on next-generation air space control. Armedservices.house.gov
4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. U.S. Cyber Commander Adm. Michael Rogers participates in a panel on responding to next-generation threats at the Center for Strategic and International Studies event examining the Department of Justice’s National Security Division.
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 15
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Stephen Welby, the assistant secretary of defense for research and engineering, talks about the state of research and development at the Pentagon. csis.org
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. The four service chiefs will testify at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on budgetary challenges facing the military. armed-services.senate.gov
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Former Pentagon officials discuss what a no-first-use nuclear policy would mean for global security. heritage.org
5 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The American Enterprise Institute hosts an event in its new building on tension between the U.S. commitment to religious freedom and the tools the government has to stop terrorists. aei.org
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 16
8 a.m. 1777 F St. NW. Retired Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, talks about a new Council on Foreign Relations report about North Korean aggression. cfr.org
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council hosts an event on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new terrorism laws in Russia. atlanticcouncil.org
SATURDAY | SEPTEMBER 17
7:30 a.m. National Harbor, Md. The Air Force Association’s two-day national convention begins. afa.org
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 20
4 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, speaks about winning the war against Islamic terrorism, including stopping lone wolf attacks at home. aei.org
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 21
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts discusses the future of the Army. atlanticcouncil.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of academic experts talk about a smarter strategy for countering violent extremists like the Islamic State. atlanticcouncil.org
