The Cook Political Report has upped its projection of the number of seats the Republican Party will gain in the House during the midterm elections.
The GOP is projected to pick up 12-25 seats during the elections in two weeks, the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman said in his analysis, up from the previous outlook that Republicans would walk away with a 10-20 seat pickup. The GOP needs a net gain of at least five seats to take control of the lower chamber. The analysis also includes 10 race rating changes.
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“This week, all six of the races moving in the GOP’s direction are located in states Joe Biden carried in 2020, whereas all four races moving towards Democrats are located in states Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020,” Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan outlet, wrote.
Here are the race changes:
Alaska: Toss-Up to Lean Democrat
Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who won the special election to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R), is now more likely to fend off Republican challengers in the state’s ranked choice election.
California 49th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
It’s anyone’s game as Rep. Mike Levin (D) tries to fend off Republican challenger Brian Maryott.
Connecticut 5th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
Republican George Logan’s chances improve against Rep. Jahana Hayes (D).
Iowa 2nd District: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Rep. Ashley Hinsen’s (R) chances at reelection reduce slightly as she faces state Sen. Liz Mathis (D).
Kansas 3rd District: Toss-Up to Lean Democrat
Rep. Sharice Davids (D) is successfully navigating her district’s move from supporting Biden by 11 points to only a 4-point advantage after redistricting as she faces GOP Chairwoman Amanda Adkins.
New York 17th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is seeing if his gamble of switching to a safer district will pay off as he faces a tightening race with GOP Assemblyman Mike Lawler.
North Carolina 1st District: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
State Sen. Don Davis’s (D) odds have improved to prevail over Republican Sandy Smith in the district Biden won by 7 percentage points
Virginia 7th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega (R) is giving incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) a run for her money as the race moves into toss-up territory.
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Virginia 10th District: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
Navy veteran Hung Cao (R) is cutting into Rep. Jennifer Wexton’s (D) lead.
Wisconsin 3rd District: Lean Republican to Likely Republican
The future of this open seat is looking redder as retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden makes inroads despite Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff’s challenge.
