In a presidential election dominated by economic issues, illegal immigration is emerging as the dominant social litmus test for Republican candidates as voters debate what to do about millions of immigrants now living illegally in America.
With unemployment hovering around 9 percent nationwide, issues like abortion and gay rights that dominated past races have gotten scant attention from the GOP candidates.
Illegal immigration, however, is an issue that ebbs and flows with the U.S. economy. And with voters in battleground states like South Carolina dealing with the fallout of illegal immigration and overseas competition, there is little forgiveness for any Republican proposing to give illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship.
So when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich this week became the latest Republican to call for a moderate, “humane” solution to illegal immigration — a “way to create legality so they are not separated by their families”– many wondered if his White House aspirations were about to come undone.
Just months earlier, Texas Gov. Rick Perry suffered conservatives’ indignation, and a steep drop in the polls, when he defended a Texas program giving college tuition breaks to illegal immigrants and claimed opponents of the program “did not have a heart.” Former President George W. Bush and John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, were both forced to walk back comprehensive immigration plans that rank and file Republicans dismissed as amnesty for lawbreakers.
Front-runner Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, among others, were quick to pounce on Gingrich, saying his proposal would attract more illegal immigrants to America.
But some wonder whether Republicans are limiting their pool of potential converts and turning off independent voters by embracing such a hard-line approach to a largely Hispanic immigrant population.
“I think he is very close to alienating the Latino voters that he needs,” said Alfonso Aguilar of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles. “If Romney continues with his rhetoric, he risks not getting the 40 percent of Latino voters he needs to win the White House.”
Aguilar said he was “very satisfied and encouraged” by Gingrich’s remarks, adding that an increasing number of Republicans were straying from the party line enforced by “talk radio” and “others in the far right that hijacked the issue.”
The test for Republican presidential contenders is whether they can assuage concerns of conservatives without going so far to the right that they alienate Hispanic voters in the race against President Obama. Obama’s campaign on Wednesday ripped Republican candidates, particularly Romney, for espousing programs that Democrats said would lead to the deportation of millions of immigrants.
But Gingrich argues that it makes little sense to force out immigrants who have been in the U.S. for years, paid taxes and avoided legal problems. Gingrich, though, rejects claims that he supports amnesty, saying that his position is rooted in fairness and similar to that of former President Ronald Reagan and other party forbearers.
What remains to be seen is whether Gingrich’s appeal will, like Perry, turn off voters.
“There’s no if, and or but — Newt was calling for amnesty,” said one GOP strategist. “Since he’s such a smart guy, maybe he should call up President Bush, John McCain or heck — even Rick Perry — and ask how that type of rhetoric goes over. It’s not a winning position.”
