DES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa voters on Tuesday will cast the first votes of the 2012 presidential campaign in caucuses that polls show remain a dead heat after nearly a year of candidate promises and attacks.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are statistically tied for first place, according to the Des Moines Register’s most recent poll of likely caucus-goers.
But none of them are safe, as nearly half of the caucus-goers surveyed said they could change their minds before casting a ballot Tuesday night.
In a growing trend across Iowa, undecided voters say they are tossing aside their ideological preferences and basing their caucus-night calculations on candidates’ electability, according to interviews with dozens of Hawkeye State voters.
“We want to beat Obama — that’s all we’re focused on right now,” West Des Moines native Barney Clark said before a rally for Romney. “I was going to back [former House Speaker Newt] Gingrich, but he has too much baggage. They say Romney can beat Obama.”
Though many evangelical voters, an influential voting bloc in the caucuses, had for months been looking for an alternative to Romney — whose conservatism they question — their new focus on electability favors him.
“You always have a tug of war between the head and the heart,” said Douglas Gross, a long-time Iowa Republican consultant. “This time, the head wins, and I think Romney benefits from that.”
Voters see Paul as the least electable candidate, but the Texas congressman’s supporters are among the most committed voters heading for the caucuses, the polls show.
At town-hall meetings across the state, one of the first questions that Iowans ask candidates is how they plan to beat Obama. Iowans frequently cite Obama’s “billion-dollar war chest” — which is actually closer to $86 million when Obama’s fundraising totals are combined with those of the Democratic National Committee.
Santorum, who has surged in recent polls after spending virtually all of his campaign time in Iowa, has been trying to make the case that he is electable, pointing to his 1990 win over a seven-term Democratic congressman in Pennsylvania, a critical presidential battleground state.
Meanwhile, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been reminding voters that he led the 1994 Republican takeover of the House and promising he can outdebate Obama.
Romney, on the other hand, cites the strength of his national organization and his experience in the private sector.
Voters’ shift away from ideology is significant in Iowa, where religious conservatives — who traditionally place a strong emphasis on candidates’ ideology — accounted for six in 10 caucus-goers in 2008.
The trend is also roping in some new caucus-goers.
Ann Ritter, a teacher from Stanton, said she’s never participated in the caucuses or attended a campaign event until Sunday, when she drove an hour to see Romney in Atlantic.
“I think we need an entirely new leader,” she said. “We need to get rid of Obamacare and all the regulations. I just don’t know who is the best candidate to do it.”
Ritter said she won’t make a decision on who to support until the night of the caucuses. Her husband, Phil, a retired Lutheran minister, said he’s also undecided.
“All I know is we gotta get rid of Obama,” he said. “Otherwise, we’re toast.”
