Can we spend our way out of inflation? Biden’s insane defense of spending another $3.5 trillion

Published August 17, 2021 8:46pm ET



President Joe Biden is aware voters no longer approve of his handling of the economy and that rising inflation is the biggest reason they have lost confidence in him.

That is why his Council of Economic Advisers published a report last week to argue borrowing and spending another $3.5 trillion wouldn’t make our growing inflation crisis worse.

“The share of a family’s budget spent on any particular category of goods or services reflects a combination of factors that are both within and outside its control,” the report noted. “For example, the share a family spends on childcare could increase because the price charged by their childcare provider increases, because a family has a second child needing care, or because a family member loses their job and must accept a lower-paying job after displacement.”

Some categories of spending “have risen noticeably faster” than others, the report went on to explain. This includes childcare prices, which are up 210% between 1990 and 2019 — much faster than the 143% rise in the median family income over the same period.

Prices for services such as childcare rise faster than other categories because “human services like childcare are often more limited in their potential to see enhanced productivity (caregivers cannot watch children any ‘faster’ over the same number of set hours per day,” the report reads.

Bringing this back to Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending plan, the report claims that since the legislation includes universal preschool, working families would actually see their cost of living go down even as the price of everything else goes up.

But can the federal government just flip a switch and make universal pre-K free? Who is going to provide these services without demanding any sort of wage or compensation? And where will the capacity for all these extra pre-K spots come from?

The report doesn’t say, and it can’t.

We do know one of the big reasons why the price of childcare has risen so fast in recent years is because of all the new regulations government now requires for its provision. The Atlantic’s Jordan Weissmann reports:

Child care is a carefully regulated industry. States lay down rules about how many children each employee is allowed to watch over, the square footage centers need per child, and other minute details. And the stricter the regs, the higher the costs. If a center is required by law to have 25 square feet of space for every kid in a program, it can’t ever downsize its building when rents rise. If it has to hire a care giver for every two children, it can’t really achieve any economies of scale on labor to save money when other expenses go up. A comparative case in point: in Massachusetts, where child care centers must hire one teacher for every three infants, the price of care averaged more than $16,000 per year. In Mississippi, where centers must hire one teacher for every five infants, the price of care averaged less than $5,000.

Governing magazine’s Ryan Bourne adds:

Empirical research analyzing differences across states shows that the net effects of these requirements are costly and that relaxing them would have beneficial effects without significantly compromising quality. Mercatus Center economists Diana Thomas and Devon Gorry, for example, estimate that loosening ratios by just one child across all age groups would result in prices falling by 9 percent or more. That’s over $2,000 per year for a family using full-time infant-center care in D.C. Requiring lead teachers to have high-school diplomas likewise raises prices by between 25 percent and 46 percent.

So, does Biden’s pre-K plan include deregulating the industry to lower costs? Nope. Quite the contrary:

The President’s plan will also ensure that all publicly-funded preschool is high-quality, with low student-to-teacher ratios, high-quality and developmentally appropriate curriculum, and supportive classroom environments that are inclusive for all students… All employees in participating pre-K programs and Head Start will earn at least $15 per hour, and those with comparable qualifications will receive compensation commensurate with that of kindergarten teachers.

So, Biden’s plan to lower the cost of pre-K for working families is to subsidize demand through more federal spending and then restrict supply by increasing the regulatory costs of providing pre-K.

Have you ever wondered why college tuition and housing prices have risen faster than almost anything else in the U.S. economy, including childcare? It’s because the government has stimulated demand for these things through subsidies while simultaneously restricting supply through regulation.

This is Biden’s solution for childcare, too.

Instead of making working families’ lives more affordable, Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending plan will only make it worse.