I like to remind people that we don’t elect presidents by national plebiscite. So don’t overly obsess about national polls. National surveys have a place – they can reveal significant patterns on measures such as enthusiasm and trends among key voter groups, such as undecided Americans. But in the end, given our current political landscape, it comes down to a handful of battleground states. State level polling is done less frequently than, say Gallup or Rasmussen tracking. So the results tend to trickle in a little later and lag the national results. We are just now beginning to see a smattering of post-convention state polls. We’ll see a much clearer picture in the next week or so. But according to preliminary numbers, most reflect the McCain/Palin national bump. Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com sums them up well:
As organizations continue to release these surveys, they will likely shake up a number of the current electoral vote predictions, many of which had Obama within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed to get elected. Blumenthal’s electoral vote map (243 likely or lean Obama, 194 McCain, 101 toss up) for example, has moved North Carolina to “lean McCain” from toss up and Wisconsin to “lean Obama” from the solid Obama category, where it stood pre-GOP convention.
