Independent political analysts are feeling more bullish about Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate.
That’s a dramatic change from last week, when most predictions put the Republican gain at either six or seven Senate seats. Six wins would give the Republicans a 51-seat majority.
Here are the current predictions, in order of how strong they think Democrats’ position is:
• FiveThirtyEight, statistician Nate Silver’s website, gives Democrats a 45 percent chance of holding the Senate, up from 35 percent last week.
• The New York Times’ The Upshot gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of keeping the Senate, a dramatic upswing compared to the 39 percent chance it gave last week.
• The Washington Post’s Election Lab gives Democrats a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate, up from a 48 percent chance last week.
• The Huffington Post gives Democrats a 53 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, up from 48 percent chance last week.
• The Princeton Election Consortium, which has been most favorable for Democrats so far this year, now gives them an 80 percent chance of keeping the Senate.
Still, two notable longtime analysts still give Republicans the upper hand.
Roll Call’s Stu Rothenberg has not updated his prediction from last week that the GOP would gain at least seven seats, winning control of the Senate.
And analyst Charlie Cook gives Republicans a 60 percent chance of taking the Senate.
