Washington is already sick of health care, and Dr. Obama’s course of treatments is just getting started.
It’s true that a bill may still pass this year, but Democrats from the president on down are dramatically reducing expectations.
We were told this was the year for health care because with a Democratic mega-majority and past detractors — the health care industry and big business — ready to make a deal, a bill could move fast enough not to get bogged down.
As President Barack Obama said, “The stars are aligned.”
That was just May 12, but the astrological charts seem to have already been mislaid.
Since then, Americans have seen none of the economic sugar high that was supposed to result from the $787 billion stimulus, and worries grow daily about the twin terrors of taxes and inflation.
Now, when the president says that “robust” economic growth next year will prevent him from raising taxes on families making less than $250,000, it’s a Republican laugh line.
Obama concedes that 10 percent unemployment is now inevitable and the government is borrowing $110 billion a month to stay afloat.
Polls show an interesting dichotomy: Two-thirds of voters figure that the worst of the recession is over and expect a turnaround in a year or less. But they don’t think the best is yet to come. About 60 percent of voters — roughly the same as in February — think the country is on the wrong track.
This puts the president in a less powerful position than when he laid down a bet on health care reform on Feb. 24 — promising Congress it was a path to “lasting prosperity.”
Obama’s other two initiatives are either stuck in the legislative mud (transferable global warming fees) or untouched (universal prekindergarten and college).
Now, the remaining pillar of prospective prosperity is cracking.
A New York Times poll shows that Americans are evenly divided on the quality of America’s health care system overall, but they are overwhelmingly satisfied with the care they are getting themselves.
More people think that the government is obliged to make sure everyone has insurance than in 1993, but they don’t want it to affect the cost, availability or quality of their own care. The Times says this shows that Americans are ready for health care reform, which is like saying that a man is ready for a diet as long as he doesn’t have to eat less or exercise.
Such slack support is causing some dissent in the president’s coalition of the willing.
Many in the health care industry were willing to play along because there is money to be made. Their industry is already deeply regulated and dependent on government subsidy, so why not put $1.6 trillion more in the pipeline?
There is resistance to a public insurance option, though.
But if the public provider is forced to take the expensive castoffs from the private sector and operate under other competitive disadvantages, the public plan could still be a moneymaker for big health.
But to keep doctors, hospitals and insurers from bolting, Democrats risk the support of big business.
Companies such as Wal-Mart are fond of the idea of a public option because they want to dump workers into a taxpayer-subsidized plan.
Paying a modest subsidy would be fine with such companies because the legacy costs and administrative overhead would be shifted to Mr. and Mrs. America. Liberals like the public option because it is generous and state-operated, and corporate types like it because it gets them off the hook — a European-style win-win.
But a “robust” public option would also be hugely expensive to taxpayers and destructive to the private insurance sector. Big business is obviously not interested in an employer insurance mandate, because a cost shift is what they’re after in the first place.
To the Left, the logical solution is to make up the difference from the Treasury, but pragmatic Democrats know the public tolerance for taxes and deficit spending is already exhausted.
A value-added tax, a junk food tax, a reduced tax write-off for charitable contributions, a tax on private health benefits, and even Medicare cuts are all “on the table.” None is very appetizing.
Team Obama believed it had reached an accord among special interests on health care. What those in the administration did not predict, though, was how quickly the public would lose patience with its big-spending ways.
