Jim Thome hit his 600th home run on Monday night — just over a year after Alex Rodriguez reached that milestone. Unless Mark McGwire (583) or Manny Ramirez (555) comes out of retirement, it will be a while before the next slugger joins this exclusive club. So who’s next? 1. Albert Pujols » The 31-year-old has 437 home runs and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. At Pujols’ current rate of 42 home runs per 162 games, the three-time MVP would reach 600 home runs after the All-Star break in 2015. One more home run this season, and Pujols will reach 30 for his 11th straight season to start his career. Maybe a change of scenery for Pujols, who will be a free agent after this season, would slow him down … but that’s doubtful.
2. Miguel Cabrera » Like Pujols, Cabrera started putting up big home run totals at a young age. In his second season in the majors, Cabrera hit 33 homers as a 21-year-old. He hasn’t hit the midway point yet (he’s at 270), but he is only 28 years old. At his current rate of 33 homers per 162 games, Cabrera would reach the milestone in 2021. But expecting more than 30 home runs for 10 straight seasons from a guy who has had his work ethic questioned throughout his career may be asking too much. In Cabrera’s defense, though, he’s always produced.
3. Adam Dunn » Well, if this season is any indication of Dunn’s future, he definitely won’t reach 600 and may be out of the majors in two years. He’s batting .161 with just 11 home runs. But Dunn is only 31 years old and already has 365 career home runs. If he is able to revert back to the slugger that hit 38 homers or more for eight straight seasons, Dunn could reach 600 in 2018. But Dunn needs to turn things around soon.
4. Paul Konerko » The White Sox slugger is already 35 years old and still more than 200 home runs away from 600 (392). But Konerko has had a career similar to Thome and could still be productive if he continues playing into his 40s. Konerko hit 39 home runs last year and is on pace for 36 this year. If he continued to hit around 30 home runs for the next seven seasons, he could reach 600. It’s not likely, but Thome has been productive late into his 30s, so why not Konerko?
– Jeffrey Tomik
