AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN MOSUL: “Day one has gone well,” was how Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook summed up the beginning of what could be a long, hard fight by Iraqi troops and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters to wrest control of Iraq’s second largest city from the grip of the Islamic State. The initial fighting is in the small villages that surround the Mosul, and the timetable for liberating the city depends almost entirely on how much fight is left in the Islamic State fighters who have dug in, behind barricades and booby-traps. The AP reports this morning that on day two, Iraqi troops are pausing, catching their breath, and the fighting is not as intense. The front lines were largely quiet as Iraqi and Peshmerga forces held their positions.
A small number of U.S. special operations forces are with Iraqi Security Forces providing what the Pentagon called “operational guidance.” That includes a number of spotters known as JTACs (joint tactical air controllers) who can call in airstrikes on targets on the ground, but the Pentagon insists U.S. troops are not on the front lines. Cook called them a sort of “middle-man.” As he described it: Iraqi forces identify a target, they convey that information to an American behind the forward line of troops, who relays the coordinates to a command-and-control center.
“HUMANITARIAN” PAUSE IN SYRIA: After the Russians and Syrians spent weeks mercilessly bombing hospitals and other civilian targets in Aleppo, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced a temporary halt to airstrikes to allow civilians and militants safe passage out of the city. The suspension of airstrikes went into effect 10 this morning, Syria time. Shoigu described the pause as a prelude to the opening of humanitarian corridors, and a 72-hour truce that Moscow has announced to begin tomorrow night.
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THE DAY AFTER: With the liberation of Mosul seemingly just a matter of time, hands are wringing in Washington about what comes after. Congress may be out of session, but that didn’t stop lawmakers from pressing the Obama administration on its plan — or lack thereof — for what happens in Mosul once Iraqis kick out the Islamic State. “What’s next after Mosul? It’s a question that I’m willing to bet that the Pentagon and the administration can’t answer,” Rep. Duncan Hunter told us.
Over at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Anthony Cordesman argues there’s a high risk of winning the war, but losing the peace. In an online commentary Cordesman writes that “winning” in Mosul “is likely to be highly relative and presents major challenges in terms of Iraqi unity.” “Iraq’s central government and the United States face almost as much of a threat from their ‘allies’ as from ISIS — keeping them from turning on each other and from trying to exploit the victory over ISIS to their own advantage at the expense of Iraqi unity is at best going to be a ‘close run thing.’ ”
FLYNN’S TAKE: Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn predicted Monday that Iran is going to be the real victor in the fight to take back Mosul from the Islamic State, Mariana Barillas writes. “I think that what we have to do is we have to work with the Arab nations as much as we’re working with NATO and Iraq, and I will tell you at the end of the day, the big victor here in Mosul is likely Iran,” he told Fox News. “Once it’s all said and done, I think that the Shiite, which is the Iranian-backed component of the Iraqi government right now, I think they are going to be the big winners here.”
NOT “WAGGING THE DOG” The White House said Monday that the Iraqi prime minister’s decision to launch an offensive to drive the Islamic State out of Mosul was his alone and had nothing to do with the U.S. political calendar, Susan Crabtree writes. “The Iraqi central government is the one that is calling the shots, and they should. They are a sovereign nation, and the support they are receiving from the [U.S. military] is at their request,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Monday.
LOCKHEED AWARDED NAVY CONTRACT: Lockheed Martin is being awarded a $743 million modification to the previously awarded low-rate initial production Lot 9 F-35 Lightning II joint strike fighters. “This modification provides additional funding and will establish not-to-exceed prices for diminishing manufacturing and material shortages redesign and development, estimated post production concurrency changes and country unique requirements,” the Pentagon said. In addition, the money establishes not-to-exceed prices for one F-35A and one F-35B. Work will be done in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.
WE HAVE LIFTOFF: An Orbital ATK Antares rocket was launched successfully into space last night from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility on a mission to resupply the International Space Station. Two years ago, an Antares rocket exploded a few seconds after liftoff. “The upgraded Antares rocket includes new RD-181 engines from [Russia’s] Energomash, a core designed by Yuzhnoye and manufactured by Yuzhmash, as well as the Castor 30XL solid rocket motor second stage that is manufactured at Orbital ATK’s facility in Magna, Utah,” says a company statement. Watch the launch here.
GITMO DIARIST RELEASED: With just a couple months left in Obama’s administration, the latest transfer out of Gitmo on Monday brought the prison population down to just 60 men. Mohamedou Ould Slahi, who helped some terrorists involved in 9/11 travel to Chechnya, was sent to Mauritania. Slahi is probably best known for penning his best-selling 2015 memoir Guantanamo Diary about his years in detention.
Sen. Kelly Ayotte slammed the transfer. “I am outraged that the Obama administration released a Guantanamo detainee who DoD said is not only a member of al Qaeda, but also aided the 9/11 hijackers who conducted horrific terrorist attacks on our country, killing nearly 3,000 innocent Americans. On top of that, reports indicate that Slahi is not even being detained in Mauritania. This deeply irresponsible move by this administration shows callous disregard for the federal government’s chief responsibility to keep America safe.”
MIKE ROGERS SQUARED: Mike Rogers the admiral and Mike Rogers the former Michigan congressman appear on a panel this morning at the FedTalks 2016 day-long cyber conference in D.C. where they’ll talk about readiness in the cyber realm. Other speakers include the chief information officers from both the CIA and the Department of Homeland Security.
HOSS PLEADS GUILTY: Retired Marine Gen. James “Hoss” Cartwright pleaded guilty on Monday to one count of lying to federal investigators in connection with an investigation into allegations that he had disclosed classified information to two journalists without authorization, Rudy Takala writes. The retired four-star made the plea in a hearing before Federal Judge Richard Leon. Cartwright was vice chairman on the Joint Chiefs from 2007 to 2011, but was stripped of his security clearance in 2013 during an investigation into his alleged role in leaking classified information to the New York Times pertaining to the Stuxnet virus that crippled Iranian nuclear facilities by causing their centrifuges to spin out of control.
It’s the coverup, more than the crime. As in the Petraeus case, Cartwright’s mistake was lying to the FBI. His explanation is a common one for a senior officer in his position, namely he was talking to reporters after the story of Stuxnet was already out there, in an effort to limit damage to national security. So why didn’t he fess up to the feds? He didn’t want to be blamed for the original leak. How did they catch him in the lie? Email. “I knew I was not the source of the story and I didn’t want to be blamed for the leak,” Cartwright said in a statement. “My only goal in talking to the reporters was to protect American interests and lives.”
THIS DOESN’T LOOK GOOD: Newly released documents from the FBI’s year-long investigation of Hillary Clinton’s server indicate a State Department official proposed a “quid pro quo” aimed at getting the FBI to cover up classified emails discovered on Clinton’s server. In return, an unnamed FBI official said it might be open to a deal if the State Department could agree to boosting the FBI’s presence in Iraq, Sarah Westwood writes. The FBI notes released Monday show that Patrick Kennedy, State’s undersecretary for management, pressured the FBI to change the classified markings on an email that had been upgraded to “secret.”
McCAIN’S LATEST RANT: Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain is incensed about a video released by hard-liners in Iran showing a detained Iranian-American for the first time since he was arrested last year, which he calls “just the latest attempt to intimidate the United States” following the signing of the Iran nuclear deal. In a statement, McCain said “Such increasingly belligerent behavior towards the United States is hardly surprising, given the Obama Administration’s countless concessions to Iran made in pursuit of its dangerous deal.”
COOK TIMER: Another scheduled 1:30 p.m. Pentagon briefing by Peter Cook, begins at 1:40 p.m. Still waiting for one on-time performance.
THE RUNDOWN
Time: Here’s Why Rodrigo Duterte Could Be Making a High-Profile Visit to China
Marine Corps Times: Marines may head to Norway as U.S.-Russia relations grow colder
UPI: Terma, BAE continue noise-reduction effort for pilot helmets
Defense News: Raytheon’s OCX Offering Survives Nunn-McCurdy Breach
Breaking Defense: DARPA Do-It-All Drone Among New VTOLs Nearing Flight
Daily Beast: There Are Really Two Battles for Mosul
CNN: US forces get ever closer to danger in Mosul
Defense One: The Apps They Carried: Software, Big Data, and the Fight for Mosul
Navy Times: Navy launches far-reaching ratings overhaul despite sailor backlash
Army Times: Former Joint Chiefs chairman named honorary knight
Reuters: Despite failures, North Korea could field missile next year: U.S. expert
Military.com: North Korea Says It Wants UK to Pull out of Military Drills
USNI News: Panel: Russian Militarization of Arctic Raising Security Concerns
Fox News: With focus on Mexico border, criminals, terrorists may be entering via Canada, report says
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 18
8 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Retired Gen. Michael Hayden, the former head of the CIA, speaks at the start of a morning event on cyber security challenges for the next administration. heritage.org
8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Think tank experts discuss how the Pentagon can develop alternative defense strategies. csbaonline.org
8:30 a.m. Albuquerque, NM. CSIS hosts the second of a two-part Project on Nuclear Issues conference. All speakers and presentations are off-the-record. csis.org
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. NSA Deputy National Manager for National Security Systems Curt Dukes gives an update on the U.S. cyber defenses. aei.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former service leaders discuss how to use public-private partnerships to invest in defense infrastructure. csis.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Adm. Kurt Tidd, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, talks about maritime security. csis.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. and Mexican military officials, as well as think tank analysts, discuss the evolving military relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. wilsoncenter.org
12 p.m. Rayburn 2167. Former B-2 bomber pilots speak about the importance of long-range strike capabilities on the 15th anniversary of the longest bombing run. mitchellaerospacepower.org
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council presents its new paper on a 10-year plan for U.S.-Iran relations. atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, the former deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, talks about whether armed conflict with Russia is a real possibility. brookings.edu
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts talks about the cybersecurity threats facing the upcoming presidential election. atlanticcouncil.org
MONDAY | OCTOBER 24
9 a.m. Willard Intercontinental Hotel. Army Secretary Eric Fanning, Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James and Navy Secretary Ray Mabus talk about the transition to the next administration. cnas.org
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The CSIS Aerospace Security Project hosts its inaugural event on the U.S. military and commercial space industry. csis.org
