Pollster Scott Rasmussen has just released a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers which shows Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a virtual tie for first place — 23 percent and 22 percent, respectively. Rasmussen’s poll also supports other polling showing an increase in support for Rick Santorum. In the new survey, Santorum is in third place in Iowa, with 16 percent — up from ten percent a little more than a week ago.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry are tied at 13 percent, and Michele Bachmann is at five percent. Jon Huntsman is at three percent.
Despite the late date, Rasmussen agrees that the race remains extraordinarily fluid. “Forty-one percent of all caucus participants say they still could change their minds, and six percent more have no first preference,” he says, “suggesting that much could still change in the next five days.”
There was some criticism of a CNN poll released yesterday showing Romney ahead of Paul by a 25 percent to 22 percent margin. That poll just counted registered Republicans, and a significant part of Paul’s support comes from non-Republicans who plan to take part in the caucuses. The new Rasmussen poll surveys all likely caucus-goers, not just Republicans.
