The news broke late Thursday night that U.S. forces killed Iranian leader Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike. Good riddance.
The Washington Examiner’s Phil Klein rightly dubbed Soleimani “Iran’s terrorist in chief.” The Iranian general is responsible for the deaths of untold numbers of American. He has plotted and logistically supported attacks on U.S. troops and, most recently, the American Embassy in Iraq. We should all be happy to see him dead. And, if it is true that Soleimani was planning an “imminent threat” to American lives, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claims, then the decisive action carrying out his killing is fully justified.
But the widespread celebration over his demise must be matched with serious caution and concern. This escalation is only the latest in a series of mounting tensions between the United States and Iran. And now, Iran is promising a “harsh retaliation” in response to Soleimani’s killing. War seems to be beckoning, especially given the readying of nearly 5,000 additional troops ready to deploy to the Middle East. President Trump should be using this opportunity to draw a line in the sand and talk Iran down from the brink, because war with Iran would be an unmitigated disaster.
Trump campaigned against the Iraq War and our other endless wars in the Middle East, rightly decrying them as a waste of thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars. But as Daniel DePetris notes, the killing of Soleimani could send the region spiraling into “violent chaos” and lead to all-out war, depending on how Iran responds. Such a war with Iran would be much more difficult and costly than even our failed invasion of Iraq. An extended conflict must be avoided if at all possible.
For one, Iran is a much larger country than Iraq, with roughly three times the landmass, a much less favorable, mountainous geography, and almost four times the population. Iran has a much larger military, with estimates as high as half a million troops.
And as Robert Farley, an Army War College professor, wrote, the backlash from Iran could be vicious: “Iran could step up efforts to destabilize Iraq and Afghanistan through the use of proxies and arms shipments. Similarly, it could try to induce its proxies in the region to attack U.S. allies. Iran could use its extensive fleet of ballistic missiles to attack U.S. bases, ships, and the military and economic installations of U.S. allies.”
So if the Iraq War turned into a decade-long disaster costing thousands of American lives and trillions of taxpayer dollars… well, an all-out conflict with Iran would likely only be more protracted and costly. If he really wants to put America first, Trump should do everything in his power to make sure it doesn’t come to that.
