For those who’ve already picked a side in the presidential contest, no debate gaffe will change their mind.
If Hillary Clinton sounds stilted and staged, it’s just evidence of her message discipline. Her supporters may even be relieved (and count it a win) if she stays on script and avoids email server statements like “with a cloth?”
If Donald Trump’s insults go too far, it’ll give his base more reason to cheer him on, especially when Clinton is the target.
For those firmly in either camp, they’ll likely stay.
This isn’t brand new information. Presidential debates have never been about winning over the decideds. Instead, presidential debates are important because they’re about the swayable middle — the undecideds — where well-timed, witty humor, the perfect hand gesture or smile, and a mic-drop sound bite can actually make or break votes.
So what’s different about 2016? The debate-as-litmus-test for likability doesn’t apply. This year it’s about unlikability. In other words, in an election cycle where both candidates are historically unlikable, voters aren’t asking “Who do I like the most?” they’re asking “Who do I dislike the least?”
Here’s what Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to do to win the “least unlikable” award.
Authenticity
Winner to Date: Trump
2016 has been about authenticity. How else could 75-year-old Bernie Sanders (and with that hair) gain so many millennial supporters? So far, Trump has won on authenticity — it’s what his base likes about him. However, it can be a double-edged sword.
Trump must realize is that he can’t change his brand this late in the game. He has gone back and forth from nice guy to tough guy. He needs to stay firmly in the middle — enough to keep his base happy but not too over-the-top to double down on his unlikables and push away middle-of-the-road voters. He should stay away from #CrookedHillary-style attacks and instead go after her policies and scandals.
Clinton struggles the most with authenticity. People (well, except Charlie Crist) think she’s untrustworthy. The one way she could make gains in this area (other than admitting the truth) is to play off what Trump is likely to reference — her health. Clinton should make it clear that like every American, especially working moms, she has clocked in despite illness. Though she’s running for president, she understands the need for a sick day.
The one thing she can’t do in the debate? Cough.
Composure
Winner to date: Clinton
Composure signals control, and Clinton has mastered it. For example, her 2000 New York Senate debate against Rick Lazio completely changed that election because she kept her composure while Lazio lost his.
Clinton was calm then, and remains calm today. She also makes sure to look at her opponent when he’s speaking, no matter the charge leveled against her. Some might say this ability only echoes the cries of “robot!” Sure. Maybe. But in a debate, you win if you remain calm when attacked.
Enter Trump and his inability to stay composed. If Clinton has mastered it, Trump is only testing the waters. He’s shown moments of composure, but certainly not when challenged. And Trump has historically skipped out on debates or forums where he knows he’ll have to answer policy questions, so the GOP primary offers the only look at his style — big hand gestures, short words, and lots of cross talk.
What Trump did in the primary probably won’t resonate in the general. Trump has to appear presidential to win the undecideds, which means he should maintain a healthy mix of that politically incorrect style plus deliver sound bites that don’t offend (too much).
Solutions
Winner to date: Toss-up
Because Americans want to know, here’s hoping NBC’s Lester Holt will push both candidates on policy specifics.
Voters are genuinely concerned about what the next president can do for them as they struggle to make ends meet, as terrorist attacks continue, and as violence erupts on our nation’s streets. Voters want to know which candidate will make their lives better.
In advance of tonight’s debate, NBC revealed the question topics. On the list are “America’s direction,” “achieving prosperity,” and “securing America.”
How do both Trump and Clinton move past their talking points and insults to get to substance? Trump needs to strike a careful balance between acknowledging the concerns of so many Americans, doubling down on his “Make America Great Again” slogan, and outlining his policies. Also, allowing hope to punctuate his doom-and-gloom projections will go a long way.
Clinton needs to one-up her campaign manager’s serious gaffe last week and give details on foreign policy. She has to be careful not to discredit her record as secretary of state, reiterate how she’ll be different from Obama, and make clear from a domestic standpoint that she isn’t an extension of the past 8 years. That’s a fine needle to thread. Good luck.
With a record-breaking 100 million Americans expected to tune in, tonight’s presidential debate matters. The winner will be authentic, composed, and offer real, workable policy solutions. Or rather, he/she will be the least unlikable. Yes, a low bar indeed.
Beverly Hallberg is president of District Media Group. Thinking of submitting an op-ed to the Washington Examiner? Be sure to read our guidelines on submissions.
