Last month, along with most everybody else, I reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had seemingly survived reelection after Israel’s right-wing parties had secured a majority of the seats. But after weeks of intense negotiations, Netanyahu has been unable to form a government, and if he does not by Wednesday, it could force Israel to hold another costly election.
The source of the deadlock actually has nothing to do with Palestinians, the peace process, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, or any of the issues that typically dominate discourse about Israel in the United States. Instead, the issue concerns the debate over ultra-Orthodox enlistment in the military.
Though in theory there is near-universal conscription in Israel, that is not true in practice, and ultra-Orthodox communities have been able to successfully ride various exemptions and deferrals to largely avoid service. Over time, this has led to growing resentment among less religious Israelis, who have to take on an increasing proportion of the burden of military service.
This issue has come to a head because Netanyahu needs the support of Avigdor Lieberman, who has the five seats to put Netanyahu over the threshold required to form a government. Lieberman is insisting that Israel carry out IDF-backed plans to gradually increase ultra-Orthodox enlistment, but the problem is that two ultra-Orthodox parties, who control 16 seats, are insisting that the draft law is softened. If one side does not budge, then Netanyahu will be unable to form a government, and he’ll be forced to push for the Knesset to be dissolved and for another expensive election.
Lieberman may have his own selfish political reasons for exerting maximum leverage over Netanyahu, especially at a time when Bibi is seen as vulnerable and desperate to form a new government to pass a set of immunity laws to protect him from prosecution over various corruption charges. But the issue of ultra-Orthodox military service is really just emblematic of the growing tensions between more secular (or at least less religious) Israelis and the increasingly assertive ultra-Orthodox communities in a vibrant modern society. “The draft law is just one symptom of ultra-Orthodox extremism,” Lieberman said.
In recent years, there have been growing debates over the control that religious authorities exert over marriage law and on the ongoing inconveniences caused by policies such as the limitations that are put on public transportation on Shabbat. As ultra-Orthodox forces exert control over the lives of Israelis, the fact that they don’t share the burden of military service even as they are more dependent on government subsidies has really rankled many Israelis. But in Israel’s parliamentary system, the high ultra-Orthodox birthrates and heavy voter turnout have enabled them to consistently win enough seats to make their support essential to forming a government. In exchange for their support, Netanyahu has generally protected their interests. But Lieberman appears to be drawing a line in the sand.
So, it is fitting in a way that the fate of the Israeli government would hinge on a question of the balance between religion and secular world realities that is so central to its future as a nation.
As of now, early polls suggest Netanyahu would easily win a do-over election. There are also various other possibilities if the Knesset refuses to dissolve, which would prevent a new election. But that would result in too many potential scenarios to attempt to game out at this point.
