President Trump’s high confidence in winning Texas is vexing some Republican insiders, who fret that his 2020 campaign is unprepared to handle a generational challenge from the Democratic Party for control of the state’s critical 38 votes in the Electoral College.
The Democrats flipped two suburban Texas congressional districts and another dozen seats in the state house in the midterm elections, while Democrat Beto O’Rourke nearly ousted Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. GOP strategists with deep experience in Texas are bracing for the possibility of more turbulence next year, with some worrying that Trump’s top political officials in the state are ill-equipped for the competition. Others are pleased with the campaign’s Texas leadership, but question party strategy.
“Personnel are fine,” said a veteran Republican operative with Texas ties who requested anonymity to avoid publicly criticizing Trump or the Republican National Committee. “But [I] still don’t believe Trump headquarters understands [his] exposure in Texas.” Another GOP operative, who is based in Texas, said the party needs to update its pitch to voters to account for an electorate that is evolving and becoming less Republican.
“This is a very poor sign about a real and needed focus on diverse populations and areas of the state that deserve to have a different campaign approach than what we saw in 2018,” this operative said, referring to the leadership of “Trump Victory” in Texas, which is a joint effort of the Trump campaign and the RNC. There is virtually no scenario in which Trump wins reelection without Texas.
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Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was recently named honorary chairman of Trump Victory in the state, with Taylor Mattox, a veteran of Gov. Greg Abbott’s successful campaigns, hired as state director. Stephanie Alexander is the regional political director overseeing Texas, along with other states. Patrick is predicting the president will win Texas by more than the 9 points that carried him in 2016.
“We have had staff in Texas in 2016, 2018 and 2020. And all we have done is win,” RNC spokesman Rick Gorka added. “We fully expect to win in Texas especially when voters compare President Donald Trump’s record versus the socialist policies espoused by 2020 Democrats.”
Such bold claims have left some Republicans privately uneasy.
They wonder if the Trump campaign and the RNC appreciate the Democrats’ growing strength in a state that has supported the GOP consistently in statewide contests since the early 1990s. Democrats there have gained under Trump as white suburbanites that typically voted Republican moved Left. The Democrats also benefited from transplants who brought their liberal politics with them. Hispanic support for Republicans in Texas has generally remained unchanged.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Austin who is involved in the party’s 2020 effort, praised Trump Victory, saying the operation is on pace to hold the line should the eventual Democratic nominee mount a fierce campaign for Texas electoral votes. “All of the pieces are coming together,” he said. “People are definitely taking the threat of Democrats turning Texas blue seriously.”
Dave Carney, a strategist who has advised Republican candidates in Texas for more than 20 years, said he has never seen the GOP engage in such “robust” preparations the year before an election. That planning includes a privately funded effort to register new Republican voters to counter the rising blue tide.
“The [Texas GOP] under [chairman] James Dickey has field staff and much more on the ground now,” Carney said.
