A LAST-DITCH EFFORT: President Joe Biden meets with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson this afternoon as part of a last-ditch effort to overcome objections from Turkey and Hungary to Sweden joining its neighbor Finland as the newest members of NATO.
“President Biden and Prime Minister Kristersson will review our growing security cooperation and reaffirm their view that Sweden should join NATO as soon as possible,” said a statement from White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
The show of solidarity comes a week before NATO’s most important meeting of the year, a summit of the leaders of the 31 member nations set for Vilnius, Lithuania, July 11-12. NATO had hoped to welcome Sweden into the fold at the summit, but there is no sign the Turkish or Hungarian legislatures will ratify the accession in time.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is to meet tomorrow in Brussels with senior officials from Turkey, Sweden, and Finland in an attempt to move the process forward. Biden meets with Kristersson at 2 p.m. and is expected to make brief remarks.
THE QURAN CONUNDRUM: Turkey says Sweden has not done enough to crack down on groups Turkey considers terrorists, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and people associated with a 2016 coup attempt.
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also furious about another in a series of Quran-burning incidents that occurred during a protest last week outside a mosque in central Stockholm. “Those who allow these under the pretext of freedom of expression and turn a blind eye to this viciousness, as well as those who have committed this crime, will not reach their goals,” Erdogan said, condemning Sweden for granting a permit for the demonstration.
Sweden attempted to ban the public burning of Islam’s holy book, but a court overturned the ban.
“I will say that we do condemn it; we’re deeply concerned by the act,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller last week. “The United States of course supports freedom of expression and the right to peaceful assembly as elements of democracy.”
“We can both believe that people have a right to commit these acts and believe that they are deplorable at the same time,” Miller said. “Sweden has taken a number of significant and important steps to respond to concerns that Turkiye has raised. We believe those steps should be sufficient to address those concerns and that it is time to move to full accession to NATO for Sweden.”
HUNGARY’S CONCERNS UNCLEAR: Even if Turkey were to drop its objections, Sweden would likely not gain the last vote it needs before next week. Joining NATO requires a consensus of all current members, and Hungarian lawmakers have indicated they do not plan to take up Sweden’s bid until this fall, at the earliest.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the NATO leader with the closest ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has accused Sweden of spreading “outright lies” about the health of democracy in Hungary.
But Hungary has never spelled out its objections to Sweden, and NATO officials hope that once Turkey gives its approval, Hungary will too.
Last week, after speaking to Orban, Sweden’s prime minister said he was given assurances Hungary would not block Sweden’s eventual membership. “He confirmed very clearly that what he said to me last time still applies,” Kristersson told reporters, according to Reuters. “Hungary will not delay Sweden’s ratification process in any way.”
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STOLTENBERG EXTENDED ANOTHER YEAR: Amid NATO’s biggest challenge in decades, the alliance has opted to stick with the steady hand of Jens Stoltenberg as the civilian leader of NATO.
It’s the fourth time the former Norwegian prime minister’s term has been extended since he became secretary-general in 2014. His term will now expire on Oct. 1, 2024, assuming it’s not extended again.
“I am honored by the decision of NATO allies to extend my term,” Stoltenberg said in a statement. “The transatlantic bond between Europe and North America has ensured our freedom and security for nearly 75 years, and in a more dangerous world, our great alliance is more important than ever.”
“With his steady leadership, experience, and judgment, Secretary-General Stoltenberg has brought our alliance through the most significant challenges in European security since World War II,” said President Joe Biden in a statement. “I look forward to continuing the work with Secretary-General Stoltenberg to further strengthen the Alliance next week at the NATO Summit in Vilnius.”
ZELENSKY WARNS OF ZAPORIZHZHIA SABOTAGE: For weeks, Ukraine has been accusing Russia of planning to create a false flag incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been under Russian control since the early days of the war.
But in a video address last night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his intelligence network has detected ominous signs that the plan may be moving closer to being carried out, as Ukrainian troops slowly advance in the southeast of the country.
“Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian troops have placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario,” Zelensky said. “But in any case, the world sees, can’t but see, that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia and no one else.”
Zelensky said Russia has been emboldened by getting away with the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, which caused widespread flooding. “Unfortunately, there was no timely and large-scale response to the terrorist attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant,” he said. “And this may incite the Kremlin to commit new evil.”
In 1986, when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, an explosion and fire at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the north sent clouds of radioactive material across much of Europe.
Russia’s United Nations ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, issued a statement describing the Ukrainian allegations as “simply preposterous.”
PUTIN THANKS XI FOR SUPPORT FOLLOWING BRIEF RUSSIAN COUP ATTEMPT
TOP NATO ADMIRAL ON UKRAINE: Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, is the latest senior military officer to try to tamp down expectations of a quick success by Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive, now in its second month.
“The counteroffensive is, it is difficult. People should never think that this is an easy walkover. It will never be. There’s a considerable number of Russians in Ukraine. There’s considerable defensive obstacles,” Bauer told reporters at NATO headquarters Monday. “And we saw in Normandy in the Second World War that it took seven, eight, nine weeks for the Allies to actually break through the defensive lines of the Germans. And so it is not a surprise that it is not going fast.”
“War is never easy to predict,” Bauer said, emphasizing that what he called the “mental component in warfare” is extremely important. “Ukrainians know what they’re fighting for. The Russians don’t have a clue what they’re fighting for. And that difference you can actually see on the battlefield.”
Bauer’s remarks echoed an assessment provided by U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley at the National Press Club last week. “War on paper and real war are different. In real war, real people die, real people are on those front lines, real people are in those vehicles, real bodies are being shredded by high explosives and so on and so forth.”
“So that it’s going slower than people had predicted doesn’t surprise me at all,” Milley said. “Is it happening slower than computers might have said or other people might have said? Yes. What I had said was this is going to take six, eight, 10 weeks. It’s going to be very difficult, it’s going to be very long and it’s going to be very, very bloody, and no one should have any illusions about any of that.”
UK MOD: ‘RUSSIA HAS ACHIEVED SOME SUCCESS’: In an intelligence assessment released over the weekend, the British Defense Ministry said Russia has “refined its tactics” and, as a result, has “achieved some success” in blunting Ukrainian attempts to probe Russian front lines with tanks and armored vehicles.
“The core of this approach has been Russia’s very heavy use of anti-tank mines. In some areas the density of its minefields indicate that it has likely used many more mines than laid down in its military doctrine,” the ministry said in a Twitter post. “Having slowed the Ukrainian advance, Russia has then attempted to strike Ukrainian armored vehicles with one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, attack helicopters and artillery.”
“Although Russia has achieved some success with this approach in the early stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, its forces continue to suffer from key weaknesses, especially overstretched units and a shortage of artillery munitions,” the assessment concluded.
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The Rundown
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New York Times: Putin Focuses On His Survival, Scrambling To Coup-Proof Rule
Washington Post: Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal
Agence France Presse: Russia Says West Enabled Drone Attacks Near Moscow
New York Times: Putin, Xi, and Modi Meet on Camera, but with No Signs of Greater Unity
CBS 60 Minutes: The State Of The U.S. Navy As China Builds Up Its Naval Force And Threatens Taiwan
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Eyes Curbing China’s Access To Cloud
Inside Defense: Rogers, Smith Lead Bipartisan Trip To Indo-Pacific
Defense News: Europe’s Defense Leaders Push Competing Air Defense Visions
Politico: ‘Political Hostages’: Tuberville’s Promotions Blockade Is About to Hit the Joint Chiefs Hard
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Marine Corps Times: Marine Corps Triples Enlistment Bonuses For Cyber Jobs
Bloomberg: Opinion: James Stavridis: U.S. Military’s Recruiting Woes Are A National-Security Crisis
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: America’s Culture Wars Are Rippling Through the Armed Forces
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Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 5
TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to a military entrance processing station in Fort Meade, Maryland where he will swear in approximately 100 new recruits, to mark the 50th anniversary of America’s all-volunteer military. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release
11 a.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy toward Taiwan and China,” with former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen; and Susan Gordon, former principal deputy director of national intelligence https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “After Prigozhin, What’s Next for Belarus?” with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus opposition leader; Hanna Liubakova, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/after-prigozhin-whats-next-for-belarus
THURSDAY | JULY 6
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “The 2023 Freedom and Prosperity Indexes, a measurement of freedom and prosperity in 164 countries,” with Dan Negrea, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center; Joseph Lemoine, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center; and Anna Gawel, managing editor of Devex https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/launch
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion of new report: “Repel, Don’t Expel: Strengthening NATO’s Defense and Deterrence in the Baltic States,” with co-author Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the CSIS International Security Program; co-author Sean Monaghan, visiting fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch
10 a.m — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Series event with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Putin’s Prigozhin problems: How has power shifted in Russia?” with former Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrei Kozyrev; Yevgenia Albats, center associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/putins-prigozhin-problems/
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The European Union’s Enlargement Conundrum,” with Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; R. Daniel Kelemen, nonresident senior associate at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; Ilke Toygur, nonresident senior associate at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Donatienne Ruy, fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/european-unions-enlargement-conundrum
2 p.m. — Defense Priorities virtual discussion: “NATO or neutrality: Assessing security guarantees for Ukraine,” with Liana Fix, fellow for Europe, Council on Foreign Relations; Benjamin Friedman, policy director, Defense Priorities; Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine; and Emma Ashford, senior fellow, Stimson Center https://natoorneutrality.splashthat.com
3 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: “Putin’s Hold on Power and Russia’s Future,” with John Sullivan, former U.S. ambassador to Russia https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
FRIDAY | JULY 7
7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Assessing the Hiroshima Summit,” with Keiichi Ono, Japanese senior deputy minister for foreign affairs https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-hiroshima-summit
1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual discussion: “The Hunt for Spies: Counterintelligence Efforts inside the U.S.,” with Mirriam-Grace MacIntyre, executive director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center https://www.thecipherbrief.com
MONDAY | JULY 10
12 p.m 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person event: “Building the Navy for the Indo-Pacific,” with Emma Salisbury, associate fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. RSVP: [email protected]
TUESDAY | JULY 11
4 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — President Joe Biden attends the two-day NATO leaders summit July 11-12 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth, with author Ian Garner; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion of new report: Beyond Precision: Maintaining America’s Strike Advantage in Great Power Conflict, with author Tyler Hacker, CSBA research fellow; and CSBA President and CEO Thomas Mahnken https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea. Now Crimea is under the Russian occupation. That means only one thing. War is not over yet.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett, insisting there cannot be victory without recapuring Russian-occupied Crimea.
