Vladimir Putin has Moldova in his sights.
Nestled between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is another non-NATO nation bordering a NATO country, Romania.
President Joe Biden’s words — “Let me be clear. Our forces are not engaged and will not engage in conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine” — linger large. Those words provided the green light that Putin needed to launch his invasion of Ukraine. All he heard was that everything non-NATO was in play. Biden and his counterparts at NATO and the European Union need to work on a stern deterrence message — one that lacks any ambiguity, one that says an invasion of Moldova is not a viable course of action for the Kremlin. In the meantime, they should consider sending weapons to Moldova now instead of waiting to see how this all works out. Romania also needs to prepare for an onslaught of displaced persons.
The prospect of a Russian invasion was foreshadowed in early March, when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was seen standing in front of a map displaying plans to invade Transnistria, a breakaway state in Moldova. The map appeared to show troop movements, including an attack on Transnistria, which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists, from Odessa, Ukraine. A Russian general commented last week that “control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are cases of Russian-speaking people being oppressed.” Once again, Russia is showing its hand in advance.
Renewed Russian bombing in Odessa has already begun. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at least eight people, including a 3-month-old baby, were killed in Russian missile strikes on April 23. A Ukrainian official previously said at least six cruise missiles had been launched at the port city as Russia continues its offensive.
When you step back and look at the pattern, the threat to Moldova is simply the next step, a continuation of Putin’s broader war to save “Russian-speaking” populations and support pro-Russian separatists. Consider the five-day war Tbilisi had with Russia in 2008 over Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Then, it was Crimea in 2014. Now, it’s the Donbas region of Ukraine — an area controlled by separatist groups, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic.
Transnistria has been a frozen conflict for years — a breakaway republic from Moldova under Russian military occupation since 1992. Moldova views the presence of Russian forces as illegitimate and has called for their withdrawal.
Things may get a lot worse very soon.
Retired Army Col. Jon Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
