PUTIN WANTS A BIGGER ARMY: Pro-war milbloggers in Russia have been hinting that President Vladimir Putin might use a scheduled speech today marking the 80th anniversary of Soviet forces breaking the Nazi siege of Leningrad to announce a new round of military conscription and possibly a transition from a “special military operation” to full-scale conventional war in Ukraine — something his spokesman denies.
Meanwhile, Putin Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced he will implement “large-scale military reforms” aimed at expanding Russia’s standing army by about 200,000 troops, from 1.35 million to 1.5 million, over the next three years, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which assessed the expansion demonstrates an “intent to reform the Russian military to conduct large-scale conventional warfighting in general and not just for the current war against Ukraine.”
“It is unclear if the Russian military will be able to grow as Shoigu described,” the ISW said, noting that “Shoigu made previous announcements about Russian military reforms that never came to fruition.
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE ANNOUNCES PLANS TO EXPAND MILITARY
PUTIN’S DEMANDS ‘NONSTARTER’: At a meeting at the State Department yesterday between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Blinken continued to say the U.S. goal is to put Ukraine in the strongest position possible for the day when peace talks become possible while in the next breath conceding that given Putin’s demands, a negotiated settlement remains unlikely.
“You only have to look at Putin’s own words in a recent conversation with President Erdogan of Turkey in which he says unless and until Ukraine accepts the new territorial realities, as he put it, there’s nothing to negotiate,” Blinken said. “In other words, unless and until Ukraine acknowledges and accepts the fact that territory that Russia has seized by force, it’s not getting back, there’s nothing to negotiate. That of course is in and of itself a nonstarter.”
“We’re now in winter. There continues to be ferocious fighting, particularly along the eastern front. I anticipate that that will, unfortunately, go on for some time,” Blinken said. “But we are determined together, as well as with many others, to make sure, as I said, that the Ukrainians have what they need to recapture, regain what they’ve lost, and to deal with the Russian aggression. So that hasn’t changed.”
UNITED KINGDOM URGES NATO TO ARM UKRAINE FOR QUICK VICTORY BEFORE RUSSIA REARMS
‘PROUD TO BE NO. 2 IN THE PECKING ORDER’: “We should never lose sight of the fact that the United States of America is the single largest donor of military and economic aid to support Ukraine’s self-defense of any country in the world,” said Cleverly at the joint appearance with Blinken. “The U.K. is very proud to be No. 2 in that pecking order.”
The U.K. is sending a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks as well as more than two dozen heavy artillery systems along with 100,000 rounds of ammunition. “Ukraine’s heroic armed forces have liberated thousands of square miles, and I have no doubt they can win in their battle for freedom,” Cleverly said.
Meanwhile, at a White House meeting with President Joe Biden, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte indicated the Netherlands would join Germany in sending a Patriot missile system to Ukraine.
“We have the intention to join what you are doing with Germany on the Patriots project, so the air defense system. I think that it is important that we join that,” Rutte said, adding that he had discussed the idea with Germany’s chancellor. It was unclear if the Netherlands would send another Patriot battery or help fund Germany’s offer.
“We have decided to spend another $2.5 billion on helping the Ukraine war effort,” Rutte said. “If you compare this to the size of America, it would be over $50 billion — $50 billion.”
UKRAINE MINISTERS AMONG 18 DEAD AFTER HELICOPTER CRASHES NEAR NURSERY OUTSIDE KYIV
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Germany today and is scheduled to meet tomorrow in Berlin with new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
On Friday, Austin will be joined at Ramstein Air Base by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley for another meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of some 50 nations that have been providing economic or military aid to Ukraine.
Pressure is building on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine — or at the very least give permission for other allies who have the German-made tanks to provide them to the war effort. Scholz is scheduled to address the World Economic Forum in Davos today, while British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is meeting with counterparts from Poland and the Baltic countries in Estonia, the so-called Leopard coalition, to urge Germany to give the green light.
Germany has indicated that it wants the United States to provide main battle tanks first. “These are sovereign decisions for each country to make,” said Blinken, noting the Ramstein meeting at the end of the week will be deciding what military aid to send next. “I would expect further announcements to come out of that meeting … so stay tuned for more on that.”
BLINKEN HINTS AT NEW MILITARY AID AS UKRAINE AWAITS GERMANY’S TANK DECISION
‘IT’S NOT ENOUGH’: Former Supreme NATO Commander retired Gen. Wes Clark, who oversaw the NATO Kosovo War in 1999, continues to argue that Western military assistance to Ukraine, as substantial as it is, is simply not adequate to insure victory.
“It’s not enough, so we’ve got to get serious about this. The only way to stop this is for Ukraine to defeat Russia and eject them from all Ukrainian territories,” Clark said on CNN, where he is a paid contributor. “Russia is not relenting in what it’s doing. Putin is mobilizing more force as he’s planning for another offensive. And you know, we’re just penny-pocketing the supplies out. You know, it’s great that we’re giving them 10 tanks from Britain. But 10 tanks? Ukraine needs 300, 500 tanks.”
Clark said that when it comes to the propaganda battle, Putin’s state-controlled media has the upper hand. “We don’t seem to have any way of getting information and the arguments on our side into Russia and affecting the public opinion in Russia. This is a real problem for us,” he said. “Putin knows that if he can discourage the United States from supporting Ukraine, that Ukraine will fall rather quickly. And so, he’s working against the American public opinion and also against public opinion in Europe.”
JOINT CHIEFS WATCH: The Wall Street Journal is handicapping the competition among current four-stars to see which service will get the next chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. With Army Gen. Mark Milley’s term coming to an end on Sept. 30, it’s President Joe Biden’s prerogative to nominate his successor, who would normally serve for four years, into Biden’s second or the next president’s first term.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the top candidates are Air Force chief of staff Gen. Charles “CQ” Brown, who would be the second black chairman; Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, who reshaped the Marine Corps ditching its tank battalions; and Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, who heads both the U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has no troops under his command, aside from the immediate office staff, and is not in the chain of command unless inserted into that position by the president, as Gen. Colin Powell was during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. By statute, the chairman’s role is to serve as the senior military adviser to the president and the secretary of defense.
Because the current chairman is from the Army and the previous chairman, Joseph Dunford, was a Marine, the betting is that Brown has the edge, given that he would be the first Air Force general to serve in the top job since 2005, 18 years ago.
But the most important factor is from whom the president is most comfortable getting his military advice. Biden is expected to make a nomination in the spring.
MARK MILLEY HAS FIRST IN-PERSON SITDOWN WITH UKRAINIAN COUNTERPART
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine ministers among 18 dead after helicopter crashes near nursery outside Kyiv
Washington Examiner: Russian Ministry of Defense announces plans to expand military
Washington Examiner: Blinken hints at new military aid as Ukraine awaits Germany’s tank decision
Washington Examiner: United Kingdom urges NATO to arm Ukraine for quick victory before Russia rearms
Washington Examiner: Mark Milley has first in-person sitdown with Ukrainian counterpart
Washington Examiner: US sends artillery shells stockpiled in Israel to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Zelensky adviser resigns after linking Ukraine air defense to apartment strike
Washington Examiner: China warns Blinken to mind his manners on next visit
Washington Examiner: White House reaffirms commitment to freeing Americans detained in Iran
Washington Examiner: Pentagon backtracks on back pay for service members discharged over COVID-19 vaccine
Washington Examiner: Twitter strips Taliban of blue checkmarks purchased via premium service: Report
Washington Examiner: Obama ethics chief blasts Biden’s ‘inexcusable neglect’ of classified documents
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Here we go again — take defense off the table
Wall Street Journal: Air Force, Marine Generals Seen as Top Picks for Joint Chiefs Job
Inside Defense: Calvert Named House Defense Approps Chair
The Guardian: Ben Wallace and EU Defense Ministers to Press Germany over Tanks to Ukraine
Wall Street Journal: Finland Won’t Join NATO Without Sweden
Defense News: Nordic States To Develop Common Cybersecurity Strategy
Breaking Defense: Putin’s Comments Underline Growing Russian Concern over Jet, Tank Production
19fortyfive.com: Warp Speed: Ukraine’s Bradley Fighting Vehicle Program is Moving Fast
USNI News: U.K. Mod: Russian Anti-Ship Missile Used In Fatal Attack On Civilians In Ukraine, Killing 40
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: Beijing Totally Restructured Its Military to Beat the US
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Asks China for Dialogue After ‘Unsafe’ RC-135 Intercept—But No Talks Set
Bloomberg: U.S.-China Defense Talks Stalled Two Months After Biden-Xi Meeting
Washington Post: China’s Population, Fortunes Tumble
Stars and Stripes: Austin To Visit South Korea, Philippines Amid Elevated Concerns About China, North Korea In Indo-Pacific Region
Bloomberg: South Korea’s Flirtation With Nuclear Arms Piles Pressure On U.S.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: CENTCOM Sees Success with Integrated Anti-Drone and Missile Defenses
Defense Scoop: DOD Pursuing Next-Gen Virtual Training for Fighter Pilots
Defense News: Push For Naval ‘Interchangeability’ Will Require Help From Industry
19fortyfive.com: SSN(X): The U.S. Navy Has Big Plans for a New Attack Submarine
Defense One: New Parental Leave Policy Could Help Retention, Recruiting
Stars and Stripes: Marines Now Using Body Scanners To Better Measure Fat
19fortyfive.com: Putin Can’t Hide This: Russia Is Committing Brutal War Crimes in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: The Wagner Group Is Pure Evil (Can Putin Contain Them?)
USNI News: Navy Training Aircraft Crashes In Alabama, Pilots Ejected Safely
The Cipher Brief: Analysis: We Need Clear Communication Over What’s Happening in Japan
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 18
TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for Germany ahead of Friday’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
6:30 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville. Register here: https://info.ausa.org
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Enhancing Cybersecurity, Information Security, and Industrial Security as the Foundation for Japan’s Defense Transformation,” with Mihoko Matsubara, chief cybersecurity strategist at NTT; Lindy Kyzer, director of content at ClearanceJobs; Arthur Herman, senior fellow at Hudson; and Kenneth Weinstein, fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/enhancing-cybersecurity
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies book discussion: Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers and Moscow’s Struggle for Ukraine, with author Anna Arutunyan, global fellow at the Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-talk-hybrid-warriors
1 p.m. — Navy Memorial virtual discussion with Navy Chief of Chaplains Rear Adm. Gregory Todd https://www.navymemorial.org/new-events
3 p.m. — Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law virtual event: “Secret War: Unauthorized Combat and Legal Loopholes,” with Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel, Brennan Center Liberty and National Security Program; Oona Hathaway, professor of law, Yale Law School; Wesley Morgan, journalist and author, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley; and moderator Elias Yousif, research analyst, conventional defense, Stimson Center https://www.eventbrite.com/e/secret-war-unauthorized-combat-and-legal-loopholes
5 p.m. 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics seminar: “Foreign Leaders Analysis: A Profile of Xi Jinping,” with Enrico Suardi, chief of psychiatry at St. Elizabeths Hospital https://www.iwp.edu/events/foreign-leaders-analysis-a-profile-of-xi-jinping/
THURSDAY | JANUARY 19
TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin joint press conference with German defense minister in Berlin.
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report: “North Korea Policy and Extended Deterrence,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Forces Korea commander, chairman of the Korea Defense Veterans Association, and member of the CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula https://www.csis.org/events/csis-commission-report-north-korea
10:30 a.m. 2121 K St. NW — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: “The Recalibration of Saudi Foreign Policy,” with Neda Bolourchi, associate director of Rutgers University’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies, and Emile Hokayem, IISS director of regional security and senior fellow for Middle East security https://www.iiss.org/events/2023/01/the-recalibration-of-saudi-foreign-policy
11:30 a.m — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on a new report: “Chinese Lessons From the Pacific War: Implications for PLA Warfighting.” https://csbaonline.org/about/events/report-release-webinar
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Strategic threats in Latin America and the Caribbean,” with Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander of U.S. Southern Command https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-general-laura-j-richardson
1 p.m. — Washington Post live discussion with Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) about how she wants her party to govern, with the Washington Post’s Leigh Ann Caldwell https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
FRIDAY | JANUARY 20
4 a.m. Ramstein Air Base, Germany — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin makes opening remarks at the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
10:30 a.m. Ramstein Air Base — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley joint press briefing after Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the University of California at San Diego’s 21st Century China Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-overreach
MONDAY | JANUARY 23
1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “A Conversation with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness,” with Hal Brands, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-john-cornyn
TUESDAY | JANUARY 24
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies invites you to join our Aerospace Nation event: “The importance of the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise to the nation’s security,” with Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, and Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton, commander, 20th Air Force, Air Force Global Strike Command https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Never in living memory has Russia been more isolated and the Atlantic Alliance more united. If Putin believed that the world would succumb to Ukraine fatigue and lose the will to resist his ambitions, then that was, once again, another colossal misjudgment on his part.”
her colossal misjudgment on his part.” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, speaking at the U.S. State Department on Tuesday
